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Jets vs. Dolphins NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 17, 2023 10:20 AM EST • 3 min 52 sec read.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins runs the ball ahead of our Week 15 NFL predictions for Jets vs. Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins runs the ball in the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Hard Rock Stadium on December 11, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images/AFP

Two AFC East rivals meet as the Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets, and we offer our best Jets vs. Dolphins NFL player props for Week 15 based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.

The New York Jets (5-8) snapped a five-game losing streak with a 30-6 win over the Houston Texans (the first double-digit loss for Houston since Week 2). The Jets improved to 4-1 when scoring at least 14 points this season, scoring on six of their seven second-half drives (three touchdowns, three field goals). 

The Miami Dolphins continued a trend as the second team in a row, with the highest moneyline odds, to suffer an outright loss, dropping 28-27 against the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. This defeat marked the Dolphins' initial loss of the season against a team holding a .500 or lower record. Their odds of clinching the AFC's No. 1 seed plummeted from 43% to 18%, as reported by ESPN Analytics.

In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions and NFL Week 15 player props, here are our best Jets vs. Dolphins NFL player props for Week 15 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jets vs. Dolphins NFL player props: Week 15

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-140 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ranking in the top four among all quarterbacks in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating, he has still thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in six of 13 games, including last week’s loss to the Titans when star wide receiver Tyreek Hill injured his ankle. While there is still a chance Hill suits up this week, he will not be 100% healthy, nor will he be expected to play his normal allotment of snaps.

Entering Week 14, Hill had nine games with 25-plus fantasy points this season. But in his absence last week, the Dolphins offense looked pedestrian. Before Hill was injured, Tagovailoa completed all six of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt, while the team ran for 6.7 yards per rush. After Hill’s injury, Tagovaila went 17-of-27 and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, while the running game was bottled up for 4.7 yards per carry. 

Since New York’s 34-13 loss to Miami in Week 12, it ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (85.5) and fourth in yards per carry allowed (3.2). However, the Dolphins did not have running back De’Von Achane healthy for that game, so we expect head coach Mike McDaniel to utilize his skill set and create a more balanced offense in this rematch, especially with Hill limited or out (he played just 39% of the snaps over the final three-quarters last week), which will lower Tagovailoa’s statistical ceiling. In addition, Tagovailoa was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks last week, his most in the last two seasons, and he could again be without three starting offensive linemen.

Under backers have their choice between DraftKings and bet365 for the best price for this wager, as all other NFL prop betting sites charge at least -145 odds to wager on the Under.

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Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 receptions (-135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Garrett Wilson is coming off his best statistical game of the season, turning nine catches into 108 yards and 20.1 fantasy points. That ranked fifth among all wide receivers and was Wilson’s season-high. He enters this game needing 4 catches to become the third player in Jets history to have consecutive seasons with 80-plus receptions, and we expect him to record that and then some, as he has five or more catches in nine of 13 games this season.

One of those was in Week 12 against Miami, where he caught seven passes from Tim Boyle, and now he has a rejuvenated Zach Wilson back under center, who was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week last week after a 301-yard and two-touchdown performance. 

This is a three-star play, as Wilson has been a target-hog all season, with the third-highest target share (28.7%) and air-yard share (48.6%) of all wide receivers.

bet365 is the only one of our best NFL prop betting sites charging less than -140 odds to back Wilson’s Over of 4.5 receptions. 

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Jason Sanders Over 1.5 field goals made (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has made 51 extra points compared to 14 field goals this season, but since we are lower on Miami’s offensive outlook this week, we expect it to stall in the red zone and have to settle for more field goals. 

Despite the Dolphins’ propensity for regularly scoring touchdowns, Sanders has kicked multiple field goals in three of the previous four games. Now, the vaunted Miami passing attack faces a Jets defense that ranks second or better in passer rating allowed, passing yards per attempt, and completion percentage over expected since Week 8. This is also a three-star play since New York ranks in the top five in lowest red zone touchdown percentage allowed (44.12%). 

Sanders has an O/U of 6.5 kicking points at all of the best sportsbooks, which suggests that oddsmakers believe him kicking at least two field goals is likely.

Jets vs. Dolphins player props made 12/15/2023 at 6:14 a.m. ET 

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.