Top Expert NFL Prop Picks for Week 18: Value Hidden in Murky Depth Charts

Our football experts make their best Week 18 NFL player and team prop picks.

Betting on the first Week 18 in NFL history projects to be a challenge, but there's plenty of value in the player and team prop picks markets when looking in the right spots. Be sure to keep a closer eye than usual on inactive lists ahead of kickoffs as playoff-bound and eliminated teams alike opt to rest key players.

Here’s a look at the top team and player NFL prop picks for Week 18 from SportsBookReview's betting experts (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL Team Prop Picks

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SEE ALSO: Updated NFL Week 18 Odds, Lines, and Picks

NFL Player Prop Picks

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SEE ALSO: NFL Parlay Picks

Top NFL Week 18 Team Prop Picks

Giants team total Under 14.5 (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The New York Giants are coming off a historically bad performance against the Chicago Bears, as they passed for minus-10 yards (including yardage lost to sacks). Per Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics, Giants quarterback Mike Glennon was on pace to produce the worst quarterbacked game in NFL history. Glennon recorded a 0.0 QBR, and had he had enough plays to qualify, it would have been the worst QBR game in the 15-year history of the metric.

New York head coach Joe Judge was heavily scrutinized for his comments this week, defending the franchise as not being "some clown show organization." Unfortunately, things are as dysfunctional as dysfunctional gets in the Giants locker room, and it is doubtful that they score more than two touchdowns against the Washington Football Team's stout defense.

New York has topped 14 points just once in its last seven games, and we do not like the Giants' chances of surpassing that total this week. - Spector

Bears team total Over 19.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

The Bears offense has really clicked during the last couple weeks. They beat the Seattle Seahawks 25-24 and then eased to a 29-3 victory over the Giants last weekend.

This looks like another game in which they can smash through the 20-point barrier, as they are coming up against a Minnesota Vikings team that has nothing left to play for this season. The game takes place in a dome at U.S. Bank Stadium, so there is no need to worry about the weather. Expect a strong display from both offenses. - Green

Saints to score first and win (+130 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Atlanta Falcons went on the road and beat the rival New Orleans Saints 27-25 in Week 9. However, that was when they had something to play for. Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention, while New Orleans is a 3.5-point for this game while needing a win and for the San Francisco 49ers to lose to the Los Angeles Rams in order to make the playoffs.

QB Trevor Siemian was under center for the Saints in Week 9, but they’ll be led by Taysom Hill in their playoff push. Hill’s versatility matches up well against the Falcons. They allow 25.8 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks to rank 30th in football.

The Falcons are likely to be auditioning depth players for their 2022 roster in the final game of head coach Arthur Smith’s first season. - McLaren

49ers -4 alternate spread (+290)

The Rams boast more talent in many areas than the division-rival 49ers. However, that’s mattered so very little.

The matchup of two rising young offensive gurus in Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay has been one-sided of late, with the 49ers taking all three clashes since the beginning of the 2020 campaign. This is a good time to remember injuries decimated the 49ers in 2020, contributing to a disappointing 6-10 record.

The average margin of victory across San Francisco's last three wins against Los Angeles has been 10.7 points. That includes two eight-plus point triumphs, and a 31-10 drubbing earlier this season.

Simply being at home is pushing the standard line on this game toward the Rams, who are 4.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks. That, and the uncertainty at quarterback for the 49ers; however, Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown throughout the week and seems to be trending toward being under center.

Garoppolo has been shaky often in 2021, but he produced a season-high passer rating of 141.7 against the Rams in Week 10. - Tomlinson

Top NFL Week 18 Player Prop Picks

Hill Under 207.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings)

The Falcons are coming off a game where they held Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen to 11-for-26 and 120 yards passing while intercepting him three times to tie his career-high. While the elements in Buffalo played a significant factor, the biggest takeaway from that game is how a largely inconsistent Bills running game mauled the Falcons front.

They had their most productive ground game of the season, while running for 233 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Eighty-one of those rushing yards came from Allen himself. While not many quarterbacks have the running ability he possesses, Hill comes close. Look for Saints head coach Sean Payton to follow a similar ground-and-pound approach against the Falcons. Even in a domed setting, with a playoff berth potentially on the line. - Spector

Williams anytime TD (-115 via DraftKings)

Williams scored two touchdowns in the Kansas City Chiefs' narrow defeat at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend, taking his tally to six for the season. He has accumulated a team-high 541 rushing yards this year.

Williams has become more important to the team since starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was injured in Week 16, and he will be central to Kansas City’s chances of success against the Denver Broncos this weekend, as they try to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC. - Green

Tannehill Over 1.5 passing TDs (+130 via DraftKings)

Though they’ve secured their playoff berth, the Tennessee Titans still have lots to play for this week while trying to clinch the top spot in the AFC and the first-round bye. They’re 10-point favorites on the road against the Houston Texans.

The Titans designated running back Derrick Henry (foot) to return from the injured reserve in time for the playoffs, but they’ll need Tannehill and the passing game to shoulder the load for at least one more game. Tannehill’s two-touchdown game last week was his first in eight outings, but he’ll again have his full complement of receivers this week, and only three teams allow more yards per pass than the Texans.

This prop pick is +106 at FanDuel and +125 at BetMGM, so run with the value at DraftKings. - McLaren

Davis anytime TD (+195)

While unwatchable football is central to the New York Jets and their entire brand, the team’s clash with the Bills on Sunday is meaningful for Buffalo, and by extension every Bills pass-catcher.

That includes Davis, who will be a key figure as the Bills try to clinch the AFC East for the second straight season. Emmanuel Sanders is still ailing due to a knee injury. He seems unlikely to play after missing multiple practices this week, which will thrust Davis into the spotlight once more, this time against a putrid Jets defense he recently torched.

The Jets field the league’s fourth-worst pass defense, with the unit allowing 259.7 yards per game. Davis erupted for 105 yards on just three catches against New York in Week 10. He’s been receiving a larger role recently with Sanders hurting.

Allen threw for just 120 yards in Week 17, but Davis was on the other end for 40 of those yards. A greater workload is leading to an increase in scoring opportunities too, and four touchdowns over Davis’ last four games. - Tomlinson

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