The Cincinnati Bengals are fresh off their first win of the 2022 season and host the 3-0 Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Here are our Dolphins-Bengals picks for Thursday Night Football.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is questionable for Thursday night due to back and ankle injuries. However, head coach Mike McDaniel said Wednesday that he's "optimistic" Tagovailoa would be available to play. QB for the AFC's only undefeated team, Tagovailoa has 925 yards and eight touchdowns against two interceptions on a 71.3 completion percentage. His 82.8 QBR leads the NFL.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow had his best game of the season in Week 3 against the New York Jets, as Cincinnati won 27-12. Burrow went 23-for-36 for 275 yards and three scores without an interception.
Check out our Thursday Night Football prop picks here.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Game Info
Date: Thursday, Sept. 29, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 67 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, 10-mph NE wind
Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds
Dolphins vs. Bengals Odds Analysis
Injury concerns surrounding Tagovailoa coming out of Week 3 and the lion's share of sharp money have combined to push the opening spread of Bengals -1 to -3.5 as of Thursday morning. The Dolphins have drawn 55% of the ATS tickets but those account for just 26% of the handle.
The total opened at a consensus line of 48.5 and sits at 48 as of Thursday morning. The Over has drawn 78% of the tickets and 83% of the cash.
Check out all of our Week 4 NFL odds and lines analysis here.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Picks
Dolphins vs. Bengals ATS Pick
Bengals -3.5 (-106) ★★
If one merely looked at the boxscore from Miami's 21-19 win over Buffalo, it seems more like the Dolphins should have lost by double digits. Buffalo had 40:40 time of possession compared to Miami's 19:20, had 16 more first downs, 285 more total yards, and ran 51 more offensive plays. The last statistic is the most problematic for the Dolphins, as their defense will likely still be exhausted with just three days off before this game.
In addition, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may not be 100% healthy as he deals with ankle and back issues, the latter being the reason he said he looked woozy after a big hit last week and not that he suffered a concussion.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is coming off his second consecutive game without a turnover after committing five in a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. Cincinnati had a +3 turnover margin against the Jets after a -4 turnover margin through an 0-2 start. The Bengals' ability to play clean football will go a long way in allowing them to cover as relatively short home favorites.
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Dolphins vs. Bengals O/U Pick
Under 47.5 (-105) ★★★★★
The Bengals defense has allowed zero touchdowns over the last 20 drives. That includes 12 straight possessions holding the Jets without a touchdown and eight the previous week against the Dallas Cowboys.
In addition, Miami's defense may have figured out a recipe for success coming off the win over Buffalo. On the first three drives last week, Miami blitzed Josh Allen 57% of the time, and Allen had an 83 QBR, 88% completion percentage, and two touchdowns. For the rest of the game, the Dolphins blitzed on 20% of dropbacks, and Allen's QBR dropped to 49 with a 59% completion percentage and zero passing touchdowns. In all, Miami pressured Allen on a season-high 31% of his dropbacks, which will be an issue for Cincinnati's porous offensive line.
The Under is 14-7 in the last 21 Thursday Night Football games, and it is our favorite play of all in this game.
Dolphins vs. Bengals Prop Pick
Dolphins Under 2.5 touchdowns (-135) ★★★
Tagovailoa entered Week 3 leading the league in yards and touchdowns and was third in expected points added and EPA + completion percentage over expected behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes. However, much of those stats were skewed by a Herculean fourth-quarter comeback against Baltimore in Week 2.
Head coach Mike McDaniel will not want to be out-possessed by over 20 minutes in this game, so look for a conservative game plan with much more running and short passing involved than usual, capping the team’s offensive ceiling.
Where to Bet on Dolphins vs. Bengals Picks
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Dolphins-Bengals picks made 9/27/2022 at 7:19 a.m. ET