Thursday Night Football Prop Picks, Predictions: Will Bengals' O-Line Force Burrow to Scramble?
The undefeated Miami Dolphins visit the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. See what plays we like in our top Thursday night football prop picks.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for the second-most passing yards in the NFL, but he may miss Thursday night's game due to injury. Many of the Dolphins’ props won’t be available until his playing status becomes clear.
Meanwhile, will the Bengals' offensive line finally help the team's playmakers on that side of the ball?
Check out our Dolphins-Bengals picks preview here.
Here are our top Thursday Night Football prop picks for the Dolphins-Bengals matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday Night Football Odds
Top Thursday Night Football Prop Picks
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Thursday Night Football Prop Predictions
Burrow Over 11.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★
The Bengals' offensive line has been struggling significantly. The unit has allowed 15 sacks through three weeks, leading to Joe Burrow needing to run often. While the New York Jets only sacked him twice in Week 3, Burrow was sacked 13 times over the previous two games.
That caused him to rush for 47 yards in Week 1 and 26 yards in Week 2. The Dolphins have notched six sacks in 2022 while allowing 166 rushing yards to quarterbacks. This total should be easy for Burrow to clear while scrambling out of the pocket.
Chase Over 5.5 receptions (-115) ★★★
So far Chase has received 28% of the Bengals' target share, with 35 targets through three games. He's gone Under this total just once in 2022, and in Week 3 Chase hauled in six of his 10 targets. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense limited the Buffalo Bills to just 19 points in Week 3, but the unit allowed receiver Stefon Diggs to notch seven catches.
Chase wasn’t the first pass-catcher to register more than five catches against the Dolphins in 2022. The team also allowed Mark Andrews to rack up nine grabs in Week 2.
Mixon Under 64.5 rushing yards (-101) ★★★★★
Mixon is expected to play, but he's been dealing with an ankle injury that could limit him, especially if the issue flares up mid-game. The first contest of the season is the only one when Mixon exceeded 64.5 rushing yards, finishing with 82. He turned 19 carries into 57 yards in Week 2, and Mixon finished with just 12 carries for only 24 yards in Week 3.
Miami’s defense has also been good against opposing running backs. The Patriots' Damien Harris total just 48 rushing yards against the Dolphins in Week 1. Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens ran wild on the Dolphins with 119 yards in Week 2. However, the team's running backs only tallied 36 rushing yards. Finally, the Dolphins only allowed Bills’ running backs Zach Moss and Devin Singletary to run for 59 combined yards in Week 3.
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Thursday Night Football prop picks made on 9/28/2022 at 9:35 a.m. ET
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