Colts vs. Titans NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions

Despite their QB situation, the Indianapolis Colts might be the correct side for Sunday’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans. We still don't know who'll play, but we do have the NFL odds available so let's take a look at those.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Nissan Stadium

How far has Carson Wentz fallen in the eyes of bettors? He may or may not play for the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday after twisting his right ankle in last week’s 27-24 loss to the L.A. Rams (–4 away).

That hasn’t stopped our usual gang of sportsbooks from publishing their Week 3 NFL lines; (visit our Sportsbook Review) has the Colts pegged at +5.5 as they prepare for a tough road tilt with the Tennessee Titans. So much for circling games.

https://youtu.be/6b_yJIh1hqc

Actually, Bovada opened the Colts at +3.5 on Saturday, so there has indeed been some market reaction to Wentz’s injury – multiple injuries, as reports have him spraining both ankles last week.

Second-year QB Jacob Eason took over in the fourth quarter and didn’t help much, as Los Angeles rallied to win the game with a late field goal. If Eason has to start in place of Wentz, the Colts (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) are going to be behind the 8-ball in this matchup, to say the least.

https://twitter.com/Colts/status/1440061023461863426?s=20

Twentysomething

So why do the consensus reports at press time have 78 percent of early bettors on Indianapolis? Glad you asked.

The traditional Elo-based projections at FiveThirtyEight had Tennessee winning this game by three points; their QB-adjusted kayfabe spread is Titans –5, indicating they believe Eason will get the nod Sunday.

Indeed, Nate Silver’s crew (including Jay Boice and Neil Paine) have Wentz rated at 119 Elo points and Eason at 58 points, with 25 Elos worth roughly the same as a PAT.

https://twitter.com/Titans/status/1439724655674232833?s=20

Maybe the Colts are worth a slight lean for our NFL picks after all. It’s not like the Titans have blown the doors off their opponents. They were well on their way to losing in Seattle last Sunday, but the Seahawks shot themselves in the foot and fell 33-30 in overtime as 6.5-point home faves on the NFL odds board.

Go figure, ESPN’s Football Power Index has Tennessee ranked No. 20 overall at press time, just two spots ahead of Indianapolis, with only a half-point separating the two on neutral ground.

Colts' QB Jacob Eason (#9) couldn't do much against the Los Angeles Rams during Week 2. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

Eason Down The Road

The key takeaway here is that bettors aren’t necessarily over-reacting to the Wentz injury, but may have overvalued the Titans slightly, to begin with.

Wentz grades out as a below-average starter according to FiveThirtyEight; while Eason was a humble fourth-round pick in 2020.

He has pedigree as the son of former New England Patriots QB Tony Eason, and he was a blue-chip prospect for the Georgia Bulldogs before hurting his knee in their 2017 opener, losing the gig to Jake Fromm, and transferring to Washington.

The Pick

It’s obviously difficult to project how well Eason will perform for the Colts this Sunday after holding the clipboard last year as their third-string QB.

But as a rough guide, FiveThirtyEight has Eason rated about the same as Washington’s Taylor Heinicke (56 Elo points), who seems to be doing all right filling in for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick.

For our NFL pick, we’ll buy that for a dollar – but not a penny more, given both the chaos and the small profit margin with this contest.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.