Colts vs. Broncos Picks, Predictions NFL Week 5: Will Injuries Lead to Low-Scoring Affair?
The Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos need a statement victory heading into the Week 6 5 edition of Thursday Night Football. Read on for our Colts-Broncos picks.
A 0-2-1 start against AFC South teams is the Colts' worst divisional record to begin a season since 2011. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off their seventh consecutive loss while visiting the Las Vegas Raiders, and the team is 0-2 against AFC West rivals for the first time in 11 seasons.
These clubs have split their last six meetings, with Indianapolis winning the previous clash 15-13 in 2019.
Here are our Colts-Broncos NFL picks for Week 5 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Colts vs. Broncos Game Info
Date: Thursday, Oct. 6, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Weather: 71 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, 8-mph NE wind
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Colts vs. Broncos Odds
Colts vs. Broncos Odds Analysis
The spread opened at a consensus line of Broncos -2. With 62% of ATS wagers and 68% of the handle on the spread aligned with Denver, the line had moved to -3 as of Wednesday night.
The Over/Under has also increased, moving from a consensus opener of 40.5 to 42 as of Wednesday night. However, this seems to be reverse line movement with 62% of tickets and 77% of the cash backing the Under.
Colts vs. Broncos Picks
Colts vs. Broncos ATS Pick
Broncos -3.5 (-110) ★
Not only did Denver lose to the previously winless Raiders in Week 4, but it suffered two costly injuries. Javonte Williams went down with a torn ACL and LCL, and linebacker Randy Gregory suffered a knee injury and will be out for multiple weeks. Losing Williams would not usually be a massive deal since Melvin Gordon will carry the load. But Gordon has fumbled four times over four games, and Mike Boone can't be trusted to take on the bulk of the work at this stage of his career.
Denver's injuries will place more emphasis on a passing game that's been struggling all season. However, Russell Wilson is coming off his first multiple-touchdown game of the campaign, and the Broncos' depleted running back stable will force the offense to lean on its wide receivers more. That's a good thing, as Wilson ranks first in EPA when targeting his wide receivers, and he's just 30th when the veteran targets his running backs and tight ends.
Colts vs. Broncos O/U Pick
Under 43.5 (-110) ★★★★
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was limited to 42 rushing yards on 20 carries in Week 4, the first time in his career he's registered 20-plus carries and fewer than 70 rushing yards. That's a product of Indianapolis' poor offensive line that's been struggling to create running lanes, and no defense fears the Colts' passing attack. As poorly as the Colts played against Tennessee, they still earned chances at the end before going punt, fumble, and missed field goal over their final three possessions.
Las Vegas unexpectedly gashed Denver's run defense for 212 yards on 38 attempts, 14 first downs, and two touchdowns. That came after the Raiders averaged 17.7 attempts per game, along with 80 rushing yards and 12 first downs without a rushing touchdown over the first three weeks.
However, Indianapolis' rushing offense won't be successful until its passing game can keep defenses honest. Taylor will face stacked boxes, with more of the same results as Week 5 coming.
Colts vs. Broncos Prop Pick
Colts Under 2 touchdowns (+108) ★★★
Matt Ryan has thrown two-plus passing touchdowns in back-to-back games after previously not producing such an outing since Week 9 of 2022. He had posted one or fewer passing touchdowns over his previous 11 games before that.
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However, his consecutive contests with multiple passing touchdowns both came in the friendly confines of a domed Lucas Oil Stadium. Don't expect similar success on the road during a short week in front of a frenzied Broncos crowd.
With Ryan's player prop odds unavailable, betting on Indianapolis to be held to two or fewer touchdowns as a team is an excellent play given the team's offensive line issues.
Where to Bet on Colts-Broncos Picks
Colts-Broncos picks made 10/4/2022 at 6:05 a.m. ET
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