Chargers vs. Falcons Picks, Predictions Week 9: Back Atlanta in High-Scoring Affair
Can the Los Angeles Chargers good win on the road against the first-place Falcons? Find out with our Chargers-Falcons picks.
The Chargers had high hopes for their season but have started out rather flat with a 4-3 record. They’ve done a good job on the road with a 2-1 away record, they'll put that to the test in Atlanta.
The Falcons are the against-the-spread darlings of the NFL and have picked up three of their four wins at home. They’ll be running the ball all day long.
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 9 matchup between the Chargers and Falcons (odds via PointsBet and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Chargers vs. Falcons Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather: Indoors
Chargers vs. Falcons Odds
Chargers vs. Falcons Odds Analysis
Nothing much has changed here with regard to the spread. The line opened at with the Chargers as 3-point favorites, and it remains there at all sportsbooks. The Falcons are getting 75% of the cash and 54% of the tickets.
The total has jumped a bit. It was initially offered at 48.5, but you’ll find at least 49 points - and even 49.5 - at all books. The Over is attracting 79% of the cash and 73% of the tickets.
Chargers vs. Falcons Picks
- Spread: Falcons +3 (-110 via PointsBet)
- Over/Under: Over 49 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Prop: Marcus Mariota Under 15.5 completions (-127 via Caesars)
Chargers vs. Falcons ATS Pick
Falcons +3 (-110) ★★★★★
Here’s how I determine how I’m going to bet Falcons. Can their opponent stop the run? No? OK, I will be betting on Atlanta.
Sure, the Falcons are only a 4-4 team. Though they started off 5-0 ATS, they haven’t covered in three weeks. This has the potential to be a bounce-back spot, though, considering Atlanta is 3-1 at home and 3-1 ATS at home.
The Chargers are 23rd in DVOA against the run, and that is going to really hurt them against the Falcons, who rank second in rush play rate. Behind Marcus Mariota and a committee of runners, they’re averaging a hefty 4.7 yards per carry and rank 10th in DVOA on the ground.
That’s my only real handicap here. Both of these defenses are dreadful, and the Chargers’ offense has been mediocre at best to this point. Additionally, the Chargers could be without wide receiver Keenan Allen and are already without Mike Williams.
Chargers vs. Falcons O/U Pick
Over 49 (-107) ★★★★
The Over is 4-3 in Chargers games and 5-3 in Falcons contests this season. Though the former will be without some of its star offensive weapons, Justin Herbert can still get it done with the pieces he has, and Los Angeles ranks 11th in passing DVOA. Meanwhile, the Falcons are ninth.
Additionally, the Chargers are actually second in pace, running one play every 25.9 seconds, according to Football Outsiders. Though the Falcons will take their time and run the ball all game, they could have shorter drives and more chunk plays given how badly the Chargers defend the run.
Chargers vs. Falcons Prop Pick
Mariota Under 15.5 completions (-127) ★★★★
The Chargers are well below league average against the run and slightly above average against the pass. Only one team runs it more often than the Falcons, so this game is going to call for a heavy dose of the run from Atlanta.
Mariota is averaging only 22.3 attempts and 14 completions per game. He’s gone Over 15.5 completions on only three occasions this season, one of which was last week against one of the worst secondaries in football. I see this as a rather significant edge.
Where to Bet on Chargers-Falcons Picks
Chargers-Falcons picks made 11/03/2022 at 7:51 p.m. ET
Related Articles
