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Bills vs. Bengals SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 17: Cincy Holds Edge in Battle for AFC Supremacy

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 2, 2023 11:15 AM EST • 2 min 42 sec read.

The Bills and Bengals are both seeking to get control in the AFC in the first-ever meeting between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Here are our top Bills-Bengals SGP picks based on the best NFL odds.

The Bills (12-3) are pursuing the top spot in the AFC, and the security of a bye week. But don’t count out the Bengals (11-4), who are still alive for the playoff bye too.

Cincinnati has been charging hard and is putting its seven-game win streak on the line as it looks to shake up the conference pecking order on Monday night.

Here are our best Bills-Bengals NFL SGP picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Bills-Bengals picks, Monday Night Football prop picks, Allen-Burrow prop picks.

Bills vs. Bengals SGP Picks Week 17

  • Bengals +1.5 (-110)
  • Burrow Over 280.5 passing yards (-110)
  • Joe Mixon Under 50.5 rushing yards (-110)

Combined odds: +677

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Bills vs. Bengals Odds

SGP Predictions for Bills vs. Bengals

Bengals +1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The clash Monday night could be the most-hyped regular-season Cincinnati home game in a long, long time. The energy in the building will be electric. The average ticket price on some secondary markets is north of $270.

The Bengals have thrived in that environment, as Cincy is an NFL-best 5-1 against the spread at home. Though Buffalo’s 4-3-1 ATS record on the road is among the top half of the league in away cover rate, Cincinnati holds the edge.

Buffalo hasn't faced a team that sports a winning record during its current six-game winning streak. The Bengals are a battle-tested group that's getting the most out of its defense in big games over the last couple of seasons. Josh Allen has never seen this Cincinnati defense, and the Bengals will have a plan in place to hold him in check in a rowdy atmosphere.

Burrow Over 280.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m calling a big Joe Burrow game on Monday night. The Bengals will lean on their strongest attributes while trying to pull off the upset on Monday night. The primary way to exploit the talented Bills' defense is through the air. Buffalo ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, but just 14th against the pass.

Burrow has posted five games in 2022-23 with 300-plus passing yards, and the game environment Monday would call for another eruption. The Bengals' pass-catching group finally seems to be healthy, with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst back to strength.

DraftKings lists the Burrow passing prop at 286.5 yards, and it only allows alternate passing totals within an SGP. FanDuel’s straightforward odds at a more favorable number are preferred for this parlay.

Mixon Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Joe Mixon ranks 37th in the NFL in yards per carry on the season at 4.0. FanDuel’s 50.5-yard line for Monday night isn’t particularly aggressive, as Mixon is coming off a solid 65-yard outing at New England. But only three teams in the NFL allow fewer rushing yards per game than Buffalo in 2022-23. I don’t anticipate the Bengals attacking much on the ground against this stout Bills defensive front. 

After the first two legs of our parlay, the combined odds were +260. I was pleasantly surprised with the significant boost from adding Mixon’s rushing Under. FanDuel’s boosting algorithm probably considers it a contrarian play to take a team on the spread while also fading the starting running back within the same parlay. But I'm anticipating a Burrow-heavy path to competitiveness for Cincinnati, which leads to a juicy boost to our odds.

Bills-Bengals SGP picks made 1/2/2023 at 1:35 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.