NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 8: Will Brady, Buccaneers Snap ATS Losing Streak?
The Atlanta Falcons were the only remaining unbeaten against the spread team entering Week 7 after starting the season with six straight covers but fell 35-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals as +6.5 point underdogs. What betting tidbits are there heading into a new week? We dive into that and more in our list of Week 8 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.
For example, head-to-head data between two teams that dates back to the 1970s does not provide much insight since none of the players taking the field were even born at that time. Thus, we hope to give you the most relevant information and trends when making your weekly wagers.
Check out our NFL Week 8 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our top four NFL trends to know for Week 8 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 8
Baltimore Ravens -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have five consecutive ATS losses, the longest streak without a cover in Tom Brady’s career since 2007.
Tampa Bay was upset by the Carolina Panthers last week, despite the latter having a much-depleted roster after the Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey trades. Carolina's victory as a +550 Moneyline underdog made it the season's biggest upset.
That sent Tampa Bay to its second consecutive loss as double-digit favorites, the first time that has happened in Brady's career. The Buccaneers joined the 2013 Houston Texans and 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers as the only teams in the previous 20 seasons to lose outright as double-digit favorites in back-to-back weeks.
The Buccaneers also own the dubious distinction of the league's longest active ATS cover-less streak (five games). They face a Ravens team that is 12-3-2 ATS since 2019 (which coincides with Lamar Jackson's first year as a starter) when the line ranges from +3 to -3.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay entered Week 3 with four straight covers in games with spreads ranging from +3 to -3 but failed to cover (and lost outright) in back-to-back such games against the Packers and Chiefs in Weeks 3 and 4.
New York Jets (+105) vs. New England Patriots, New York Giants (+120) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Jets and Giants are the two most profitable Moneyline teams this season.
Few people would have predicted the Jets to start 5-2 and the Giants to start 6-1. After all, the Jets' start is its best since 2010, and they are amid their first four-game winning streak since 2015. The Jets also improved to 4-0 on the road this season after going 4-20 in road games over the previous three seasons combined.
Meanwhile, the Giants are off to their best start since 2008. Quarterback Daniel Jones has led a league-leading five game-winning drives this year, and head coach Brian Daboll has himself in the running for Coach of the Year.
All the success of the two New York teams has paid enormous dividends for those who have backed them on the Moneyline. Those who wagered $100 on the Giants to win every game are up $952, while those who backed the Jets in every game are up $670 in profits.
The Giants are a perfect 5-0 straight-up as underdogs this season and were the third team in the previous 20 years to start at least 4-0 SU as underdogs through the first six games.
Fade Publicly Backed Teams
According to BetMGM, teams that garnered 60% or more of the bets are 20-30 (40%) ATS this season.
In the long run, it is typically a losing proposition to side with the public, which has been the case with these numbers on public teams. However, entering Week 7, teams attracting more than 60% of the bets were 15-27 ATS, so last week's 5-3 ATS week for publicly backed teams was by far their best week of the season.
Be sure to look out for public betting splits later in the week to learn who the most heavily-backed teams are.
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