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Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: Best Bets & Score Projections

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 9, 2025 7:24 AM EDT • 4 min 52 sec read.

Our Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction.
Pictured: Michigan Wolverines center Vladislav Goldin celebrates in the second half against the Maryland Terrapins. Photo by Rick Osentoski via Imagn Images

Two bitter in-state rivals conclude the regular season from the Breslin Center as Michigan State hosts Michigan today at noon ET (CBS). 

Our Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction, odds, and expert picks recognize that the Spartans have wrapped up the regular season Big Ten title, which could lead to complacency. Our best sportsbooks have Michigan State as seven-point favorites.

Momentum is definitely on Michigan State’s side, as it has won six straight while Michigan has lost back-to-back games at home. But can the Wolverines snap their losing streak and gain some traction heading into next week’s Big Ten Tournament?

💰 Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions, expert picks & best bets today

Here are my best Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions, expert picks, and best bets today with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.

🏀 Michigan vs. Michigan State ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick

Here's why I'm betting on Michigan to cover the spread (+7.5) while targeting Vladislav Goldin's Over 7.5 rebounds as my best player prop bet pick for today:

✅ Michigan to cover the spread +7.5 ⭐⭐

At this point, the best thing for Michigan is to get away from Ann Arbor, as it has lost three consecutive home games, which have all come in its last five-game stretch.

Amid that poor stretch, Michigan was ranked as low as 205th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per BartTorvik.com. The Wolverines shot 24.3% from 3-point range in that span and turned the ball over on one of every five possessions.

This is a contrarian pay, especially since the Spartans beat the Wolverines 75-62 in Ann Arbor on Feb. 21.

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I am banking on Michigan State, who are among the March Madness odds contenders, being complacent after clinching the regular season Big Ten title while putting more of an emphasis on remaining healthy for next week’s conference tournament and beyond.

The Spartans found themselves down by 14 points to Iowa on Thursday and allowed a Hawkeyes team that ranks dead-last in free throw attempts per field goal attempt to shoot 18. That was their second-highest free throw total in 12 games.

The extra -115 juice is worth it at FanDuel, as it is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering a spread of +7.5 rather than the +6.5s or +7s found at its competitors.

📊 Best odds: -115 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $8.70)

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🔥 Vladislav Goldin Over 7.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐

Vladislav Goldin has averaged nearly three fewer rebounds per game than fellow frontcourt mate Danny Wolf. But Goldin has been a beast on the backboards of late, with double-digit rebound totals in three of the last four games and four of six.

In the first matchup against Michigan State, Goldin only pulled down five rebounds, two on the defensive end. That number should regress positively, as Goldin has at least six defensive rebounds in four straight games since then.

This is only a three-star play, as Michigan State’s up-tempo offense could get Goldin out of position defensively. But I do not expect the Spartans to shoot better than 40% from 3-point range again, which means there should be more misses to grab.

📊 Best odds: +115 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $11.50)

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🎯 Expert Michigan vs. Michigan State score prediction

Michigan State’s six-game winning streak includes five victories over the top seven teams in the Big Ten standings. But that difficult schedule also should take its toll on the Spartans, which is why I am predicting a final score of Michigan State 74, Michigan 70.

🔮 Expert score prediction: Michigan State 74, Michigan 70

📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1800)

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📊 Live Michigan vs. Michigan State odds & latest betting splits

Here are the latest odds for Michigan vs. Michigan State, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.

🔢 Michigan vs. Michigan State opening odds

Here's a look at the opening odds for Michigan vs. Michigan State according to BetMGM. 

  • Spread: Michigan +6.5 (-110) | Michigan State -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Michigan +230 | Michigan State -285
  • Over/Under: Over 146.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110)

🏆 Who will win Michigan vs. Michigan State?

As of Sunday morning, Michigan State is favored by 6.5 points to beat Michigan with moneyline odds of -300 at BetMGM, which suggests a 75% win probability for the Spartans. We're predicting a 74-70 win for Michigan State as our final score projection.

So far, 60% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Michigan -6.5, while 63% expect the game to finish Under the projected total of 146.5 points.

📺 How to watch Michigan vs. Michigan State today

📅 Date: Sunday, March 9, 2025
🕗 Time: Noon ET
📍 Location: Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.)
📺 TV: CBS 
💻 Streaming: Fubo, Paramount+

❓ Michigan vs. Michigan State FAQs

Who is favored to win Michigan vs. Michigan State?

Michigan State is favored to beat Michigan. The Spartans are trading at -300 at our best sports betting apps, giving them a 75% implied probability.

What are the betting odds for Michigan vs. Michigan State?

The latest spread is Michigan State -7 (-110) | Michigan +7 (-110), with a total of 147.5 points (-110).

What will be the final score of Michigan vs. Michigan State?

We're predicting a final score of Michigan State 74, Michigan 70 entering today’s matchup at the Breslin Center.

What time is Michigan vs. Michigan State today?

Tipoff for Michigan vs. Michigan State is slated for today at noon ET.

⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites

Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”