Pelicans vs. Suns Game 1 NBA Picks: Top Seed Set to Roll

The NBA Playoffs are here and the Phoenix Suns come into the postseason with their sights set on a return to the NBA Finals. Can they get off on the right foot against the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday? Read on for our Pelicans and Suns Game 1 picks and predictions.

Is there any team that can stand in the way of the Phoenix Suns finishing the job this time around? The Suns fell just short of their goal of an NBA title last season following an exciting run through the playoffs. Their redemption tour has arrived with the New Orleans Pelicans as the first impediment on their path.

As heavy favorites in the first-round series, the Suns enter with lofty expectations that they make quick work of a surprising Pelicans team still without forward Zion Williamson.

Read on for our picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA Playoffs Game 1 matchup between the Pelicans and Suns (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Pelicans vs. Suns Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, April 17, 9 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Pelicans vs. Suns Odds

Pelicans vs. Suns Odds Analysis

You knew the line for this Game 1 matchup was going to be substantial, and at Suns -10.5, it lived up to the anticipated billing. Despite 82% of the money riding with Phoenix, though, the number has not moved from that spot at DraftKings since it opened. Phoenix and New Orleans have been nearly identical teams against the spread this season, with the Suns going 44-38 ATS and the Pelicans coming in at 43-40-1 against the number on the year, including the Western Conference play-in tournament.

The total for Sunday’s game opened around 226.5 before dipping to 224 at DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. Though 59% of the tickets have come in on the Over, sharp Under betting has led to 74% of the cash laying with that side of the docket.

Pelicans vs. Suns Picks

Suns -10.5 (-110) ????Under 224 (-110) ????Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 rebounds (-125) ????

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Pelicans vs. Suns Predictions

Suns -10.5 (-110)

The Suns should dominate this series against a team that went 36-46 during the regular season. They’re superior in every way and should be highly motivated after losing to the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2020-21 NBA Finals. Phoenix has the best field goal percentage in the NBA this season, and defensively, they limit their opponents to 44.4% from the field. That’s the third-best mark in the league.

Phoenix faced New Orleans four times on the season. It won three of the meetings and covered the spread in each of those wins. The one loss that Phoenix took in this head-to-head series during the season came with point guard Chris Paul out of commission. On Sunday, Paul and all the other significant contributors will be healthy and rested for the title push.

Never will the Suns have been as focused and motivated as they will be in front of their home crowd to kick off the playoffs, and their performance should show that in a convincing Game 1 win.

Under 224 (-110)

A stifling Suns defense is going to make life miserable on a Pelicans team that doesn’t have the prowess offensively to really do anything about it. New Orleans averaged 109.3 points per game this season, which ranked 21st in the NBA. The efficiency metrics were brutal for the Pelicans, as they finished near the bottom third of the league in virtually every offensive efficiency category. 

The Suns thrive because of balance, and though Phoenix is certainly capable of scoring enough points on its own to tilt this game toward the Over, I anticipate the Suns' carefully calculated game plan relying more heavily on the success of their defense. The Suns should hit their 114.8-point scoring average on Sunday, but their route to covering the spread should be their ability to exploit a weak New Orleans offense. Phoenix stands inside the top five in virtually every defensive efficiency category—the same categories that New Orleans struggled in.

The Suns would be a bad matchup for anybody, but it’s especially bad for the Pelicans. I don’t give New Orleans much of a fighting chance on Sunday, and their scoring woes will contribute to this game cashing the Under.

Ayton Over 10.5 rebounds (-125)

Suns center Deandre Ayton averaged 10.2 rebounds per game this season and reached double-digit rebounds in eight of his last nine contests. Though New Orleans ranks well in limiting the rebound opportunities of its opponents, Ayton is expected to be the chief contributor in charge of cleaning up the glass in a game that should feature its share of missed shot attempts by the Pelicans due to the stout defense of the Suns.

Ayton improved his standing in this area during the latter stretch of the season, averaging 10.5 rebounds per game in March and 12.6 boards per game over his final five regular-season games.

In a script that should see the Suns take command, I like Ayton to be a bulldog on the glass to help Phoenix control possessions and limit Pelicans center Jonas Valan?i?nas and forward Larry Nance. Their inability to establish second-chance opportunities will lead to a frustrating night for New Orleans.

Where to Bet on Pelicans-Suns Picks

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Pelicans-Suns picks made 4/17/2022 at 1:23 p.m. ET.