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Head coach Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors yells to his players during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on January 20, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Warriors defeated the Cavaliers 120-114.
Head coach Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors yells to his players during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on January 20, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Warriors defeated the Cavaliers 120-114. Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

The Golden State Warriors may be sporting a skeleton crew in Denver on Thursday, but can the Nuggets cover a double-digit spread? Our Warriors vs. Nuggets NBA picks are based on the best NBA odds.

After three straight wins, the Warriors lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday and will stay on the road for a tough matchup against the Western Conference-leading Nuggets. The Warriors may be without guards Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Klay Thompson, who could rest on the second night of a back-to-back set. 

The Nuggets lost two of their last three games on the road before returning home for a win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. One of the best home teams in the NBA, Denver will look for another victory at Ball Arena, though the team may have to do so without forward Aaron Gordon, who’s listed as questionable due to a left ankle sprain.

Here is our best Warriors-Nuggets NBA pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Warriors vs. Nuggets game info

  • Date: Thursday, Feb. 2, 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: fuboTV, NBC Bay Area
  • Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Warriors vs. Nuggets odds

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Warriors vs. Nuggets odds analysis

This line opened at a healthy 9.5, but it’s risen to a massive 11.5. Oddsmakers are surely counting on all of Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins sitting out for Golden State, because otherwise, this would be a much smaller spread.

The Warriors are just 8-17 ATS on the road and 5-8 as road underdogs. Golden State is 2-2 in games in which it is an underdog of 10 or more points. Denver is 16-10-1 ATS at home and 5-4 when favored by at least 10 points. Despite a potentially depleted Golden State lineup and Denver’s overwhelming performance at home, bettors have laid 73% of wagers on the Warriors to cover. 

Bettors are also aligned on the point total, as 71% of wagers are on the Over. The Warriors are 29-20-2 to the Over on the season, 18-6-1 on the road, and 9-4 as road underdogs. Denver is just 11-16 at home and 14-22 against Western Conference opponents. Denver has hit the Over in each of its last two games, but the team has gone just 4-8 over its last 12. These teams combined for 251 points when they met on October 25, but key injuries could slow down the scoring on Thursday.

The Warriors’ points per game are 120.1 with Curry in the lineup compared to just 113.1 with him sidelined. The Nuggets average 117.6 points per game with Aaron Gordon available versus 107.8 when he’s out.

Warriors vs. Nuggets pick

Nuggets -11.5 vs. Warriors (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This is obviously a tough pick to make. On one hand, the Warriors are expected to be without two of their Big Three and another of the team’s leading scorers. On the other hand, this is Golden State, a well-coached team that always seems to exceed expectations. After digging a little deeper below the season-long trends, we’re taking Denver to cover.

The Nuggets are excellent at home, and the team has the best point differential in the NBA at Ball Arena, with a healthy 10.7 per game. The Nuggets regularly win big in front of the home crowd, and if Golden State rests its stars as expected, we should get a similar result.

But what about Golden State’s 6-4 ATS record on no rest? Surely, this team stays competitive when Curry or Klay rests, right? Yes … and no. While the 6-4 record looks great on its face, we need to keep in mind that two of those covers came against the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. If we dig deeper, we find that Thompson has sat out at least one game of all 10 back-to-backs this season, but the team was without both him and Curry for six of those contests and the team covered in only half of those.

Golden State’s erratic play on the second half of back-to-back sets is worth noting. The team won its last three against the Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Utah Jazz and sports big home wins over Houston and San Antonio. The Warriors also have two 30-point losses to the Brooklyn Nets and Pelicans, and a 14-point loss to the lowly Detroit Pistons. 

The Warriors have covered as big underdogs when shorthanded, but the teams they faced did not have anywhere near the same level of consistency as the Nuggets at home. This Denver squad plays well against fully healthy teams, so the Nuggets should roll the Warriors and cover the large spread.

Warriors vs. Nuggets best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Nuggets -11.5Nuggets -11.5Nuggets -11.5Nuggets -11.5Nuggets -11.5

The line and odds are the same at all of our best NBA betting sites, so use the book with which you’re most comfortable. I’d be willing to bet this line up to Nuggets -13.5, and additional line movement in favor of Denver may drive more action to Golden State for such a large spread. That won’t frighten us, and we’ll continue to back the Nuggets in what should be a blowout victory.

Warriors-Nuggets pick made 02/02/2023 at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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