Lakers vs. Nuggets Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Los Angeles Steal Game 2 in Denver?
The Denver Nuggets look to take a commanding 2-0 advantage on the Los Angeles Lakers in Thursday's Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals after their 132-126 win on Tuesday. Read on for our Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds.
The Los Angeles Lakers are optimistic about their discovery in the fourth quarter of their 132-126 defeat against the Denver Nuggets in the series opener. Implementing a defensive adjustment by assigning forward Rui Hachimura to guard Nuggets center Nikola Jokic enabled the Lakers to mount a strong comeback, narrowing the gap to just one possession.
While the Nuggets secured the victory, they will need to adapt to this new defensive approach. Now, the question is: how can bettors capitalize on this particular aspect? Well, I certainly have a notion, and I'm ready to share my best bet for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals in my Lakers vs. Nuggets predictions.
Here is our best Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction
Anthony Davis Over 3.5 steals and blocks (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Much has been made about the Lakers' decision to have Hachimura guard Jokic down the stretch in Game 1. While it certainly stymied the Nuggets' offense, it is worth mentioning that no one strategy can stop arguably the best player in the NBA. Jokic and Co. will have answers for Game 2, and the two-time MVP will likely have another strong offensive performance.
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But the reality is, Hachimura guarding Jokic has nothing to do with that specific matchup at all. It is all about maximizing Lakers forward Anthony Davis' ability on the defensive end. Allowing a rim-protecting big man to roam is something most NBA teams try to do, and we saw why when Davis finished with three steals and two blocks last time out.
Davis was guarding Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon in crunch time on Tuesday, so Denver's obvious adjustment is to move him out of the dunker spot to push the Lakers big man out of the lane. But Davis is unlikely to respect Gordon, a career 32.5% 3-point shooter, out on the perimeter.
All of this is to say that I expect Davis to live in the paint, at least until the Nuggets make a lineup change. Davis has thrived in this role during the postseason, averaging a combined 4.7 steals and blocks per game.
Davis has cleared this mark of 3.5 in 11 of his 14 postseason games, which includes the Play-In Tournament. Davis finished with a total of three steals and blocks in two of the three games he failed to clear this mark, meaning he has consistently been right there.
Davis isn't doing it all as a shot blocker, either, as he has recorded multiple steals in four of his last five outings. This includes a stretch where the Golden State Warriors actively tried to pull him away from the basket in the last round. The Lakers have a legitimate chance to steal Game 2, and I would honestly bet on it, but they won't be able to without a dominant defensive showing from Davis.
Lakers vs. Nuggets best odds
DraftKings (-125)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 steals and blocks | N/A | Over 3.5 steals and blocks | Over 3.5 steals and blocks | N/A |
| -125 | N/A | -125 | -131 | N/A |
Only three of our five best sports betting apps have this specific defensive market as of this writing. Neither FanDuel nor PointsBet has any defensive props at the time of this writing.
In the end, we placed this bet at DraftKings with the -125 listing on the Over at 3.5 steals and blocks. We would play this at -131 or better based on Davis' postseason form, so Caesars is a fine option as well.
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Lakers vs. Nuggets odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
Lakers vs. Nuggets odds analysis
The Nuggets opened as 6.5-point favorites for Game 2, but the market has moved this spread down to 5.5 at our best NBA betting sites. The spread for Game 1 closed at 6.5, which certainly came into play during Denver's six-point victory. Denver is drawing 55% of the bets on the new spread.
As for the total, the line jumped up to 227 after opening at 225.5 at the best sportsbooks. This is a big adjustment after these two teams finished Over the closing point total of 222.5 in Game 1. The Over has drawn a commanding 71% of the support from bettors.
Lakers vs. Nuggets game info
- Date: Thursday, May 18, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Lakers-Nuggets pick made 05/17/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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