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Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts during the first quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Wells Fargo Center. We're backing Embiid in our Heat vs. 76ers Player Props & Odds.
Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts during the first quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Wells Fargo Center. Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images via AFP.

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Miami Heat battle at the Wells Fargo Center on Wednesday in the NBA Play-In Tournament, as we offer our top Heat vs. 76ers player props based on the best NBA odds.

In the NBA Play-In Tournament, the Miami Heat (46-36) face off against the Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) on Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Heat, who reached the NBA Finals last season after having to win in the play-in to reach the playoffs, aim to replicate their success.

While Miami has sat atop the NBA Play-In Tournament odds for much of the back half of this season, the 76ers had grander aspirations before Joel Embiid's injury, but now boast a healthy lineup. With Embiid back in action, Philadelphia is favored by 4.5 points across our best sports betting sites, looking to bolster their position in the NBA championship odds race.

In conjunction with our Hawks vs. Bulls player props and NBA play props & best bets, here are our best Heat vs. 76ers player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. 76ers player props for Wednesday 

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Heat vs. 76ers prop bet predictions

Joel Embiid Over 11.5 rebounds (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The reigning NBA MVP looks like himself after returning from injury to play in five of the 76ers' final seven regular season games. If not for injury, Embiid would likely have been among the NBA MVP odds favorites down the stretch and he's certainly played at an MVP level since returning. While his scoring has been the most impressive piece of his game since getting healthy, the Heat have one of the best defenses in the NBA.

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With Miami ranking fifth in defensive rating (112.2) and allowing the second-fewest points in the league to centers (20.22), we're opting to go with Embiid's rebounds prop with his points line set a little high for our liking (30.5). The Heat are just 26th in rebounds per game this season (42.3) and allow the 11th most defensive rebounds to opponents (33.5) with opposing centers averaging 14.21 rebounds per game.

His rebounds prop also jumps out because of the value. At even-money via FanDuel, a $10 bet on this would lead to a $10 profit if he pulls down at least 12 boards. Our odds calculator gives him a 50% chance of doing so with these odds.

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Jimmy Butler Under 23.5 points (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Known for playing at another level come the playoffs, Jimmy Butler seems to have taken a step back this season and we're not so sure he'll be the same difference-maker in the NBA Play-In Tournament this year. Going up against his old team will be a challenge, too. Philly allows just 20.51 points per game to small forwards. Considering that, we're taking the Under on Butler's point total.

The -102 odds at FanDuel imply a 50.49% probability Butler scores fewer than 24 points with a $10 wager paying out $19.80 if he does hit the Under. While it's tough to justify betting against a man nicknamed "Playoff Jimmy," it's clear he's taken a backseat to other players this season. Butler may lead the team in points per game with 20.8, but he's behind Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, and Adebayo in usage rate.

Even if Rozier isn't healthy enough to play against the 76ers, Butler isn't necessarily the go-to scorer anymore. With fewer opportunities, it's going to be hard for Butler to get his against a defense that's ninth in the NBA in points allowed (111.5).

Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 assists (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Now that Embiid is healthy and back in the lineup, All-Star Tyrese Maxey doesn't have to carry the scoring load quite as much and can be less of a pure scorer and more of a playmaker. Against this disciplined Heat defense it's hard to find holes, but Miami ranks in the middle of the pack in assists allowed per game. It's a defense that can be susceptible to allowing lead guards to set up their surrounding scoring talent.

Miami gives up the ninth most assists per game to point guards in the NBA (8.83) and Maxey can take advantage, especially with Embiid back. Maxey's averaging a team-leading 6.2 assists per game and that number would be higher if he hadn't lost Embiid for more than half the season. 

With Embiid back, Maxey can feed him and pick up apples against Miami. The -120 odds imply a 54.55% probability that Maxey will finish with at least seven assists. And while the odds are slightly shorter than we want, a $10 bet still pays out $18.33

Heat vs. 76ers game info & odds

  • When: Wednesday, April 17
  • Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pa.
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: 76ers -4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Heat-76ers player props made Monday at 2:20 p.m. ET.

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