Monday's Top NBA Expert Picks: Jazz-Lakers End the Night Right

The NBA has a 12-game schedule for Martin Luther King Day. We focus on the later contests with our top NBA expert picks for Monday.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for the Jan. 17 NBA games (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Monday's NBA Expert Picks

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Top NBA Expert Spread Picks

Thunder +11.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't a great team. They aren't even a good team. But they do deserve more credit than the books give them. At 27-14-1 ATS, they cover at the Association's second-highest rate despite their awful 14-28 record straight-up record.

We're targeting them against the Mavericks because the public is high on Dallas. The Mavericks throttled the Memphis Grizzlies last week, and Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic are finally healthy at the same time. 

Despite these narratives, the Mavericks have scored only 95.50 points per 100 possessions in their last three games, and they're 23rd in offensive efficiency in that time. In contrast, the Thunder have 97.17 points per 100 possessions and rank fourth in offensive efficiency through that span. 

Of course, the Mavericks have also played elite defense of late, and they rank first in defensive efficiency over everyone's last three games, but numbers suggest that the books are still underestimating the Thunder, and I expect them to cover with so many extra points. - Sirois

Heat (-145 via DraftKings)

There were to be two big storylines here: the Miami Heat’s Kyle Lowry playing against his former Toronto Raptors team for the first time and the return of Miami All-Star big man Bam Adebayo. It appears only the latter will happen. Adebayo is listed as questionable but likely to play for the first time since Nov. 29 off thumb surgery.

He was averaging 18.7 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, and he is integral to Miami’s very good defense. Alas, Lowry, who was traded to the Heat in the offseason from Toronto, will not play due to personal reasons.

Toronto is listing starting guard Gary Trent Jr. (16.4 PPG) as questionable due to left ankle swelling and big man Khem Birch (5.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is out. Let’s just take the spread off the table here with a pretty good moneyline price of -145. - Jordan

Trail Blazers -2 (-105 via DraftKings)

Backing the team with the worst ATS record in the NBA is far from the most appealing pick in the world. That being said, it’s hard not to jump in on the Portland Trail Blazers laying a short 2-point margin considering that they face the lowly Orlando Magic. 

Both teams will be in action on one day of rest with travel in between their last games and this matchup. The Blazers got an East Coast road trip started off on the right foot with a five-point win over the Washington Wizards on Saturday. They are also set to get a huge lift in terms of personnel on Monday. Star shooting guard C.J. McCollum is expected to return from injury, and Norman Powell is officially questionable to rejoin the lineup after missing the last three games due to health and safety protocols.

Thus, although guard Damian Lillard and forward Larry Nance Jr. remain sidelined, Portland will at least have one of its top two players back in action. Guard Anfernee Simons has been balling in their absence. On the other side of this matchup, the Magic will once again be without big man Wendell Carter Jr. While Orlando figures to have an advantage over the Trail Blazers down low, Carter’s absence will lessen that. 

Despite all of the injuries and struggles, Portland is still 10th in the Western Conference. Taking the positive vibes of McCollum's return into account, it’s very difficult to imagine the Blazers not taking care of business against the worst team in the NBA. - John

Top NBA Expert O/U Picks

Heat-Raptors Over 209.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

The Heat and Raptors are two of the NBA's better defensive teams. They rank 10th and 15th, respectively, in defensive efficiency and that's despite having played without key defensive personnel for long stretches of the season. However, we're targeting the Over because this number is simply too low.

Miami is expected to get Adebayo back for this game, and even if he has to play on a minutes restriction, he should work with Jimmy Butler to shut down the paint for parts of the game. The market seems to expect a lot out of Adebayo right away, which probably isn't fair to him. 

The Heat and Raptors combine to average 216.7 points per 100 possessions. They combine to allow 211.2. Even though both play at a bottom-five pace, they still usually play at least 96 possessions, which should be just enough to push this one to the Over. - Sirois

Suns-Spurs Under 227.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The Phoenix Suns leads the season series 2-0, winning 115-111 in San Antonio on Nov. 22, and 108-104 in the desert on Dec. 6. I expect a score more like the latter and I’m frankly surprised this total is so high. The Suns rank second in the NBA in defensive rating at 104.7 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are middle of the pack at 110.1.

It’s likely that Phoenix will be without center Deandre Ayton after he sprained his ankle in Sunday’s 135-108 win over the Detroit Pistons. Key reserve Cameron Johnson has missed three games in a row due to a sprained ankle. Subtract those two and that’s nearly 28 points of offense. - Jordan

Jazz-Lakers Under 230.5 (-110)

Superstar center Rudy Gobert returned for the Utah Jazz on Sunday and wasted little time in dropping an 18-point, 19-rebound double-double. With their rim-protector back on the floor, the Jazz defense also returned in what ultimately was a 23-point blowout win over the Denver Nuggets. While the game did slide over the NBA betting total, it was only due to a higher scoring output from the Jazz than anticipated. 

It seems plausible to believe that Utah’s offense will slow down a bit on Monday given that the Jazz will be playing for the second straight day. Despite this notion, the Over/Under has ticked up one full point after opening at 229.5. The opposing Los Angeles Lakers have regularly played in games with high point totals this season as a result of them averaging 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes, third-most in the NBA. However, the Lakers also rank just 24th in offensive efficiency. - John

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