Celtics vs. Bucks Game 4 NBA Picks: Does Boston's Defense Have An Answer For Giannis?

The Boston Celtics will look to tie up their series with the Milwaukee Bucks before returning to TD Garden for Game 5. Here are our Celtics-Bucks picks for Game 4.

The Boston Celtics nearly won Game 3 despite a terrible shooting night from star Jayson Tatum. Celtics guard Marcus Smart successfully missed a late free throw, giving Boston the possession needed to tie the game ahead of the final buzzer. However, the Celtics just couldn't get the bucket they needed in time.

If the Celtics want to win this series, they will need to perform like they did in Game 2. They cannot afford more poor performances from Tatum or Jaylen Brown, which is what cost them in Games 1 and 3. Milwaukee's defense could cause Boston enough headaches to put the Celts in a 3-1 hole Monday night.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday's NBA matchup between the Celtics and the Bucks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Bucks Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, May 9 at 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Celtics vs. Bucks Odds Analysis

The Bucks opened as 3-to-2.5-point favorites around the market, but their advantage has slumped to a single point at most books. While some have them as a moneyline favorite, others have that market at a dead-even price.

The total for Game 4 opened at either 209.5 and 210 points. Since then, it's ticked up to 212 or 212.5, depending on the book. Notably, the Bucks have yet to go Over once these playoffs.

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Celtics vs. Bucks Picks

Bucks ML (-110 via DraftKings) ????Over 212 (-110 via FanDuel) ??Robert Williams Over 7.5 rebounds (+105 via BetMGM) ????

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Celtics vs. Bucks Predictions

Bucks (-110)

The Celtics are good, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is great. The reigning NBA Finals MVP is averaging 31.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and nine assists per game this series. He has converted 43% of his shots and boasts a net plus-minus of +10, despite Boston outscoring Milwaukee by nine through Game 3.

The Bucks know that loading up Antetokounmpo is their only hope for advancing to the conference finals. The Celtics must know that stopping the Greek Freak is their only hope for advancing, too, but they haven’t been able to do it yet.

Boston has trusted a combination of Al Horford and Grant Williams to limit Milwaukee's star forward. Williams has struggled - Antetokounmpo has made 52% of his shots against him - but Horford has fared much better. Antetokounmpo is only 27.9% against the grizzled veteran. Yet the 35-year-old Horford, who turns 36 next month, hasn’t played 36-plus minutes in three consecutive games since Boston's playoff series against Milwaukee in 2019.

On Saturday afternoon, Horford played 39 minutes and compiled 22 points and 16 rebounds. He may not come into this one gassed, but I suspect that he won't be able to defend Antetokounmpo with the same defensive intensity. Look for Milwaukee's star forward to carry his team to another home victory.

Over 212 (-110)

These teams have stayed Under in each game of this series. The total has fallen from 218 in Game 1 to 212.5 heading into Monday's matchup, and I think that creates some value for total bettors. Although these squads are averaging only 196.3 points per game thus far, the offensive seal has to break open eventually. With these squads only on one full day of rest, Game 4 makes for a solid spot to target the Over.

The Over is 29-26 when the Bucks play on one day of rest. It's 22-28-1 when the Celtics do so, but the eight-man rotation they've been using in the playoffs didn't become part of their game plan until after the trade deadline. The Celtics have played on one night of rest in the playoffs just twice, and the first of those games went Over by six. I expect a similar outcome here, especially this deep into the series.

Sharp bettors will point out that the Under is 8-0 in Milwaukee's playoff games this year. That's a fair point, but all but one of their prior games had a closing total higher than this one. It's a tough trend to bet against, but I just can't stomach taking the Under for Game 4.

Williams Over 7.5 rebounds (+105)

This number has probably bottomed out after Williams' underwhelming start to the playoffs on the glass. Time Lord is averaging only 5.7 rebounds per game this series and 4.8 in the playoffs. This comes after he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in the regular season.

Volume has been a big part of the issue. Williams has played only 15 minutes per game against the Nets and 24 against the Bucks, down from 29.4 in the regular season. I'm not sure how much Williams' injury is bothering him right now, but the Celtics cannot afford to keep leaving him on the bench for half the game. Doing so has forced Horford to play an unsustainable share of minutes. I expect them to adjust in Game 4 with Horford coming off almost 40 minutes of run.

Williams finished with eight or more rebounds in 43 of his 61 appearances in the regular season, including two of his three outings against the Bucks. He finished with 14, 10, and seven rebounds against them, respectively. He just needs a few more minutes to get the chances necessary to go Over this number, and I'd look for him to get those opportunities here.

Where to Bet on Celtics-Bucks Picks

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Celtics-Bucks picks made 5/9/2022 at 11:11 a.m. ET.