Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Betting Preview: Hendrick Chevrolets Look Unstoppable

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to its fourth road course this season for the Verizon 200. Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, and Tyler Reddick all earned their first-career wins in the first three events. Will we get another surprise winner on Sunday? Find out with our Verizon 200 picks.

Few races ended more chaotically than last year’s at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. A penalized Chase Briscoe took out leader Denny Hamlin on the final restart, allowing third-place A.J. Allmendinger to get the win for Kaulig Racing. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Matt DiBenedetto rounded out the top five.

Elliott, a true road-course ace, enters the weekend as a +400 favorite. He certainly has momentum, with no finish worse than second on his resume over the last five races. But Elliott is yet to win at a road course this season, and the books aren’t giving bettors much value on his markets. 

Here are my outright picks for NASCAR’s Verizon 200 at the Brickyard in Speedway, IN (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Verizon 200 Odds

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Verizon 200 Analysis

Elliott is the unquestioned favorite heading into this weekend. His odds range from +350 to +450 depending upon your book. While it’s usually wise to fade the chalk, he might be the best road course racer of all time. 

Elliott’s teammate, Kyle Larson, slots in next at +650 to +700. Trackhouse Racing drivers Chastain and Suarez, both of whom have already won on a road course this season, are next up. Chastain can be found at +700 to +750, while Suarez ranges from +1000 to +1200. 

A.J. Allmendinger, last year’s winner, sits at +1600 to +2000.

Verizon 200 Picks

Chase Elliott (+450 via BetMGM) ???Kyle Larson (+700 via BetMGM) ???Chris Buescher (+3000 via DraftKings) ????

Who Will Win the Verizon 200?

Elliott (+450)

It’s rare that an outright will make this column when they have odds less than +750, let alone less than +500. But Elliott at a road course is the exception. Elliott owns seven road course wins, two fewer than Jeff Gordon and one fewer than Tony Stewart, in 22 starts. Gordon made 47 starts at road courses in his career and Stewart made 34.

Elliott is yet to win at a road course in the NextGen car, but he has come close several times. He led 26 laps at Sonoma before finishing eighth. He then led 36 laps - more than half the race - before Tyler Reddick passed him for the win at Road America. Elliott finished second in the event.

It’s not shocking to see some books listing Elliott at +350. But BetMGM isn’t gouging bettors quite that hard, and he is a decent play at +450 on their site. Still, I’m reticent to ever give a NASCAR outright with odds this short more than three stars.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Larson (+700)

Like Elliott, Larson is one of the Cup Series’ premier road course racers. Although he owns only three wins at these tracks, all of them came in 2021. He owns six top-three results in just 10 road course starts for Hendrick Motorsports.

Larson consistently ran behind Elliott at Road America earlier this month, but he managed to lead 26 laps - the same number as Elliott did - at Sonoma. He also started on the pole for the event. Further, Larson finished third in last year’s debut event at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course after leading 28 laps, edging Elliott in both statistics.

Of course, Larson doesn’t have the same momentum that Elliott does entering this race. He owns just one win on the year, and it came all the way back in February. Still, Larson has three top-five finishes in the last five races, and he should be a threat to win come Sunday.

Buescher (+3000)

Buescher and Michael McDowell are two of the best long shot outright bets to make this weekend. But after NASCAR handed down a massive penalty to Front Row Motorsports (which the team is appealing, of course), I’m skeptical of the team’s ability to maintain its strong recent form. And with every book except FanDuel Sportsbook listing the two at the same price, I’d rather go with Buescher.

The 29-year-old Buescher tends to impress on road courses. He owns the seventh-best average finishing position at these tracks among active drivers since 2019. Buescher just finished second to Suarez at Sonoma back in June, and he finished a strong sixth at Road America a few weeks later.

I recommend splitting a unit between Buescher’s outright and his top-10 market. The number for that line sits at +105 on FanDuel, but its actual hit rate on road courses is 66.7% thus far. It’ll take a smart strategy call for Buescher to win Sunday’s event, but given his placement in the points standings, look for RFK Racing to get aggressive.

Where to Bet Verizon 200 Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Verizon 200 picks made 7/27/2022 at 2:18 p.m. ET