US Open Predictions 2026: Quarterfinal Day 1 Picks, Best Bets at Flushing Meadows

Five American men made the final 16 of a Grand Slam for the first time since 1995, and my US Open quarterfinal best bets for day one on Tuesday like Ben Shelton’s chances of pushing one of the top players in the world, while I also make my top pick for the matchup of two countrymen between Frances Tiafoe and Alex Michelsen.

On the women’s side, two of the top three seeds are in action, and I explain which one should have a tougher time dispatching her opponent.

🎾 US Open Round of 16 predictions 

For more tennis coverage, see more sports picks and betting analysis.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.15 units

🎯 Linda Noskova +3.5 games vs. Aryna Sabalenka (-110) 

This line can certainly be classified as “fishy” considering Sabalenka has won their two head-to-head matchups (both on hard court) by four and five games, respectively. And while Sabalenka has not lost at Flushing Meadows since the final in 2023 (17 straight match wins at the US Open), I’m backing the trend that Noskova has covered the game spread in eight straight Grand Slam matches.

Sabalenka hasn’t cruised in quarterfinal rounds of late, as her last five such matches have gone Over the projected games total. The 21-year-old Noskova has the Wimbledon championship experience to draw on, and Sabalenka wasn’t invincible, with a 14-7 record and one semifinal appearance in her previous seven events leading up to the US Open.

Time: 11:30 a.m. ET

🎯 Frances Tiafoe ML vs. Alex Michelsen (-150) 

Frances Tiafoe needed two tiebreaks, but his straight-set victory over former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev should feel like a cakewalk compared to this quarterfinal matchup against Alex Michelsen. Not only did Tiafoe overcome a previous 1-6 head-to-head record against Medvedev, but he has now won five straight matches against top-10 players and nine of 10 overall.

Tiafoe is through to his sixth Grand Slam quarterfinal. He is 2-3 in his previous five such matches, with both wins coming at the US Open. He has beaten Michelsen in straight sets in each of their last two ATP main draw matches, but the -150 moneyline odds (60% implied probability) are not steep enough that I have to get creative with any set betting or other prop wagers.

Time: 1 p.m. ET  

🎯 Jessica Pegula to win 2 sets to 0 over Emma Navarro (-130)

Jessica Pegula built a reputation early in her career for being affected by the pressure of quarterfinal matches, as she lost six straight such matches from 2021-23. Since then, she has reached the semifinal or better in a Major three times (twice at the US Open).

Pegula is 10-1 against the game spread in her last 11 US Open matches. She is not in danger of an upset here, as she has won 14 straight matches as a favorite at this event. Thus, the value is there for her to beat Emma Navarro in straight sets, as she has done in two of their three previous hard court meetings.

Time: 7 p.m. ET    

🎯 Ben Shelton to win Over 17.5 games vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-125)

Ben Shelton last faced Carlos Alcaraz at a Grand Slam at last year’s French Open. Despite playing on the Spaniard’s most preferred surface (clay), Shelton pushed the match to four grueling sets and three hours and 19 minutes in length. He won 19 games overall, and it could’ve been more if not for wasting three set point opportunities in the first-set tiebreak.

On hard courts and with Alcaraz still only playing his first tournament in five months, Shelton has likely closed the gap enough to win at least 18 games, if not pull off the outright upset. So while Alcaraz has won each of his last four Grand Slam quarterfinal matches in straight sets, I am encouraged by FanDuel’s -210 odds (67.74% implied probability) that Shelton will at least win one set.

The value is great for this wager and absolutely worth the slight extra juice at DraftKings, as all other top sports betting sites have Shelton’s O/U for games won set at 18.5.

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET