After Game 1 of the WNBA Finals finished a whopping 37 points below the closing total, how should bettors approach the moderate adjustments made to the Over/Under for Game 2? Here are our top Sun-Aces picks for Game 2.
The WNBA Finals resume on Tuesday night with Game 2 of the best-of-five series between the Connecticut Sun and the Las Vegas Aces.
Despite the Sun successfully slowing down the pace of Game 1 and making it a defensive-minded affair, it was the Aces who prevailed by three points on their home floor. Las Vegas will seek to hold serve at home and take a commanding 2-0 lead with a win on Tuesday. For Connecticut, Game 2 almost feels like a must-win.
Sun vs. Aces Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 13, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Sun vs. Aces Odds Analysis
After oddsmakers opened the spread for Tuesday's Game 2 at Aces -5 and the market consensus has since shifted half a point to 4.5. This line move has taken place despite the majority of ATS bets and handle siding with Las Vegas.
After seeing Game 1 cash the Under by a whopping 37 points, it's no surprise that the Game 2 line opened lower. The market has been willing to fire on the Under at 165. This action has caused the total to fall to 163.5 at the time of writing.
Sun vs. Aces Picks
Sun vs. Aces ATS Pick
Sun +4.5 (-110) ★★
The fact that the Sun lost Sunday’s series-opener by only a three-point margin is honestly quite remarkable considering the lack of scoring from one of their key stars. DeWanna Bonner scored only three points in Game 1 on a 1-for-9 shooting display. Connecticut cannot expect to win games in which one of its top scorers is so unproductive.
Another encouraging aspect of the Game 1 loss for the Sun is the fact that A’ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray were responsible for 45 of the Aces’ 67 points in the game. Of course, flipping the script and slowing down Las Vegas’ two hottest players will be easier said than done. However, it’s clear that the Sun’s strong defensive presence had an impact in Game 1.
From a statistical standpoint, one has to believe that the free throw disparity from Sunday’s game is due for some regression to the mean in Game 2. The Aces went to the charity stripe 19 times in Game 1 and scored 16 of their points on free throws. That’s a far cry from the five total free throw attempts that Connecticut was granted in defeat.
If Connecticut can close the gap at the foul line and get some more offensive output from Bonner, a series-tying win is hardly out of the question.
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Sun vs. Aces O/U Pick
Under 163.5 (-105) ★★★
It’s extremely difficult to confidently bet Tuesday's WNBA Finals Game 2 to the Over based on the fact that the Sun have largely been involved in defensive-minded affairs throughout the postseason. Coming into Tuesday’s contest, seven of Connecticut’s nine games in these playoffs have stayed under the betting total. What’s more, five of those games didn't even come close, falling 15-plus points short of the closing line.
Of course, the Aces averaged the fastest pace and were easily the highest-scoring offense in the WNBA this season. That said, few teams have the level of cohesiveness on the defensive end that the Sun possess. As one of the longest teams in the league, Connecticut has the personnel capable of clogging up passing lanes.
The other thing that really stood out from Game 1 is how the Sun were successful in defending the 3-point arc. During the regular season, Las Vegas led the entire WNBA with a 36.1% team average from downtown. The Aces attempted 24 3-pointers in Game 1 but made only five (20.8%).
Given how both teams have shown an ability to lock down defensively when needed, it’s hard to bank on an overwhelming shooting improvement. A swing of more than 30 points relative to Sunday’s contest is a lot to ask, thus making the Under the preferred play once again.
Sun vs. Aces Prop Pick
Plum Under 19.5 points (-130) ★★★★
Relative to Kelsey Plum’s season-long scoring average of 20.2 points, Tuesday's prop line of 19.5 points actually lands on the short end. However, this prop total does come in above her scoring output in each of the last four games. Plum has not reached the 20-point threshold since Game 1 of the Aces’ Semifinal Round series against the Seattle Storm.
Throughout the postseason, it has been Plum’s backcourt running mate, Gray, who has been stealing the show for the Aces. Gray had 21 points in Sunday’s victory. The performance featured numerous tightly-contested shots in the fourth quarter. Knowing that Gray has had the ball in her hands in big moments has resulted in slightly diminished returns for Plum offensively.
Of course, bettors should fully anticipate Plum exceeding the six points she registered in Game 1 of this series. However, recent trends suggest that a 20-point effort will be tough to come by. Plum’s scoring prop total can be found one full point lower elsewhere in the WNBA betting market, so there's value at FanDuel.
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Sun-Aces picks made 9/13/2022 at 1:55 p.m. ET