Storm vs. Fever WNBA Picks: Public in Love With Seattle as Road Favorites

Public bettors have not been shy about laying double-digits with the heavily-favored visitors. We break it all down with our Storm-Fever WNBA picks.

One of two WNBA basketball games scheduled for Tuesday is a cross-conference clash between the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever.

Tuesday’s game marks the second of three straight on the road for the Storm (9-12 against the spread, 11-10 Over/Under). Despite their loss against Atlanta on Sunday, the Storm remains just two games back in the Western Conference standings.

It has been over two weeks since the Fever (7-15 ATS, 11-10-1 O/U) last won a game. Not only has Indiana lost four straight since upsetting Chicago at home on June 19th, but all four of those losses have come by double-digit margins. Most recently, the Fever were pummeled by the same Storm outfit they will host tonight.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Tuesday’s matchup between the Storm and Fever (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

https://twitter.com/IndianaFever/status/1544377876677595138

Storm vs. Fever Game Info

Date: Tuesday, July 5, 7 p.m. ETCoverage: KZJO (Seattle/Tacoma), fuboTVLocation: Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN

Storm vs. Fever Odds

Storm vs. Fever Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers initially posted Seattle as 11-point favorites. There has been enough action on the Fever as double-digit underdogs to move the point spread down to Storm -10.5.

At the time of writing, the Storm are clearly the preferred side in this game as far as public ticket counts are concerned. Seattle has attracted a whopping 93% of all Moneyline bets. 73% of all ATS tickets on this game have also opted to lay the double-digit spread with the visitors.

The total has also seen a slight adjustment after opening up at 159. With the Over proving to be the preferred play of most bettors with 71% of the tickets, the line has since moved up half a point to 159.5.

Storm vs. Fever Picks

Fever +11 (-110 via Caesars) ???Over 158.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????3-way winning margin — either team to win by 1-5 points (+300 via Caesars) ??

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Storm vs. Fever Predictions

Fever +11 (-110)

The Fever have been playing some extremely ugly basketball over the last couple of weeks. However, an 11-point spread is simply too much to ignore. This is especially true given that the Fever will be playing Tuesday’s game at home.

Even some of the Storm’s own characteristics would seem to line up with backing Indiana as a massive underdog. Seattle is one of the slower teams in the league in terms of average pace, ranking eighth with 96.28. Despite having the WNBA’s leading scorer in Breanna Stewart on the roster, the Storm also rank just ninth in offensive rating on the season at 97.5.

Taking a closer look at the 73-57 Storm win over Indiana from July 1, it’s impossible not to notice that the Fever’s two leading scorers in Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith combined for all of 12 points. Surely, they both will be better in this matchup.

The Fever will have to make some adjustments inside given that center Queen Egbo has been ruled out with an illness. However, if Victoria Vivians is able to go after missing Friday’s contest with a shoulder injury, Indiana should perform much better on the offensive end.

Over 158.5 (-110)

Friday’s matchup between these teams featured 130 total points scored. But Mitchell and Smith combined to score less than what either player has averaged over the course of the season needs to be factored in.

In addition to positive regression for Indiana’s top two scorers, getting Vivians back on the floor tonight would also provide an offensive boost. Defensively, the Fever enter Tuesday’s contest with by far the worst rating of any team at 107.4. With Egbo ruled out, Stewart and the other Storm bigs appear poised to have an offensive field day in the paint.

The market value of this wager is also worth noting. With many sportsbooks having already raised the total up to 159.5, a full point of value exists in the current BetMGM line.

3-way winning margin — either team to win by 1-5 points (+300)

We are getting a bit more creative than usual here with our WNBA game prop. The ability to do so is all thanks to such a massive point spread on this game.

It has been over two weeks since the Fever tasted victory, and the pain of defeat surely has to get old at some point. Furthermore, we have already seen Indiana upset both Los Angeles and Chicago at home this season. 

For the Storm, taking the Fever lightly simply because they are the worst team in the league record-wise would be a mistake. Seattle has also not been a great road team, in general, this season. The team has only won four of eight games away from home. 

If the Fever do score a shocking upset, it probably won’t be by a wide margin. If they are destined for another loss, one has to believe they are capable of putting up a good fight at home.

Where to Bet on Storm-Fever Picks

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Storm-Fever picks made on 7/5/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET.