The Open Championship consistently produces long shot winners like none of golf's other major championships. We peruse the odds in search of value for the 2022 Open Championship and offer up our top long shot picks.
We've looked at all you need to know in our 2022 Open Championship Preview and broken down the top of the field in our power rankings. Here, we'll offer up the top long shot picks as The Open Championship returns to St Andrews Links for the 150th anniversary of golf's oldest major.
British Open Info
When: Thursday, July 14 - Sunday, July 17
Where: St Andrews, Scotland
Defending champion: Collin Morikawa (Royal St. George's)
How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
St Andrews Course Profile
The winning scores during the last four runnings of The Open at St Andrews have ranged from -14 to -19, with Woods firing both figures. Zach Johnson won at -15 in 2015 after a playoff over Marc Leishman and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen.
The Old Course is relatively short and very flat. Harsh Scottish winds and deep pot bunkers pose the biggest threats. The firm greens can also play extremely fast, helping to force drivers out of the hands of the Tour's longer hitters who hope to hit the putting surfaces from the tee. All but four holes feature a shared double green, and rain can make the fescue rough extra difficult.
Seven of the 14 par 4s are shorter than 400 yards and range from 348 to 397 yards. The par 3s check in at 175 and 174 yards, with the par 5s playing to 568 and 618 yards.
Winds in St Andrews this week are expected to range from 14 to 18 mph. There's a chance of rain on Friday and Saturday.
British Open Long Shot Picks
- Justin Rose (+6600 via PointsBet)
- Jordan Smith (+15000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Talor Gooch (+15000 via BetMGM)
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British Open ???? Throws
Justin Rose has won only one major to date and that was the 2013 U.S. Open. However, the Englishman tied for second at the 2018 Open Championship and the 2017 Masters. He also tied for sixth in the 2015 Open at St Andrews.
Soon to be 42, Rose most recently won the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Entering the week 50th in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), he has just two top-10 finishes against four missed cuts through 12 international events this year, but one of those top finishes was just five weeks against a strong field at the RBC Canadian Open.
Rose also enters the 2022 Open Championship as a strong fit for St Andrews and links golf. He's seventh on Tour this season in par-4 efficiency: 350-400 yards and 28th in birdie or better percentage. He has also been much better with his irons over his last 16 rounds with an average of 0.36 strokes gained: approach on the field per round.
Jordan Smith, 29, has just one European Tour victory from 2017 on his resume. He also tied for fifth at the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which is partially played at St Andrews, and the Englishman has climbed from No. 246 in the OWGR at the end of 2021 to No. 115 entering this week.
Smith has played exclusively on the DP World Tour this year with one missed cut and five top-10 finishes through 14 events. Through his last 16 rounds, he's averaging 1.50 SG: tee-to-green on the field per round.
The odds to win The Open Championship have been inflated for all golfers who departed for the LIV Golf Invitational Series earlier this season. Talor Gooch, who still ranks 40th in the OWGR, strikes me as the best value for the Old Course and links golf.
Gooch still ranks second on Tour in 3-putt avoidance, 14th in birdie or better percentage, fourth in SG: around-the-green, 14th in SG: approach, and 25th in SG: tee-to-green this season.
He recently finished seventh at the LIV Golf Portland event against what was a much stronger leaderboard than the rival tour's inaugural event. We won't always be able to blindly fade golfers from the LIV Series and this is an excellent opportunity to jump in against the negative public perception.
Long Shot British Open Winners
- Shane Lowry (+8000) 2019
- Zach Johnson (+8000) 2015
- Darren Clarke (+15000) 2011
- Louis Oosthuizen (+20000) 2010
- Stewart Cink (+12500) 2009
- Todd Hamilton (Not listed - part of "The Field") 2004
More British Open Picks
- Open Championship Preview
- Open Championship Power Rankings
- Top Odds Boosts for The Open
- Open Championship Matchups and Prop Picks
- Best Bets for Tiger Woods
- The Open Preview – Emoji Edition
Where to Bet on the 2022 British Open
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