South Point 400 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Las Vegas

Last week’s race at Kansas was profitable for us, with both Bubba Wallace and Ryan Preece cashing tickets to finish in the top 10. Let’s keep the money coming in today with my NASCAR predictions at Las Vegas for the 2026 South Point 400!

The action is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET (USA Network) from Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

📈 NASCAR odds at Las Vegas: South Point 400

💡 How to bet NASCAR at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Las Vegas Motor Speedway, like Kansas, is a 1.5-mile high-speed intermediate. Both tracks’ surfaces have steadily aged over time, increasing the impact of tire wear, but not to the point where they are true rough tracks like Darlington. The fastest average green-flag speed in Vegas this spring was just 1.56 mph slower than it was in the spring of 2022.

Because of its generally smooth surface, raw speed is the most important data point to consider when handicapping Las Vegas, with racecraft playing a smaller role. We’ll lean on the results from this spring’s race and both Kansas races – as well as some data from Michigan, Texas, and Charlotte – to pick the best bets for the 2026 South Point 400.

🏆 Best bet to win South Point 400

Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing (No. 20)

• Christopher Bell to win: +650 via FanDuel (0.5u)
• Christopher Bell ML vs. Kyle Larson: +110 via bet365 (1.2u)

Kyle Larson (+375) and Denny Hamlin (+375) dominated the three races across Kansas and Las Vegas this year, combining for two wins and five top 5s between them. Still, I prefer Christopher Bell for double the money.

Bell recorded top 5 average green-flag speed in the three events. He also posted the best average green-flag speed among those who finished the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. Those performances suggest a win could soon be in the cards.

Las Vegas favors raw speed more than Kansas. That’s great for Bell, who ranked second by average green-flag speed here in the spring, outpacing seventh-ranked Larson. Let’s lock in Bell to win and clear the pilot of the No. 5 Chevrolet.

🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets

Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing (No. 23)

• Bubba Wallace to win: +2000 via bet365 (0.25u)
• Bubba Wallace top 10: +100 via bet365 (1.5u)

I don’t get these prices. Wallace had far better odds at Kansas last week, and while he didn’t win, he ranked 12th by average green-flag speed and finished ninth. Wallace had the fifth-best green-flag speed at Kansas in the spring (and finished fifth) as well as the eighth-best green-flag speed here in the spring (and finished ninth). He should be in the mix at the end of this one, so finding him at even odds just for a top 10 is quite surprising.

Ryan Preece, RFK Racing (No. 60)

• Ryan Preece to win: +6500 via DraftKings (0.13u)
• Ryan Preece top 10: +275 via DraftKings (0.67u)

Preece is more expensive than he was last week after his 10th-place finish, but his odds are still too favorable to pass up this week. Preece’s results at Las Vegas since joining RFK Racing in 2025 speak for themselves: 11th (Spring 2026), ninth (Fall 2025), and third (Spring 2025). He just posted the 11th-best average green flag speed at Kansas a week ago and was ninth in the metric here in the spring.

Zane Smith, Front Row Racing (No. 38)

• Zane Smith top 10: +500 via BetMGM (0.25u)

Smith put together a solid run here in the spring, finishing 13th with the 14th-best average green-flag speed. He isn’t a lock for the top 10 this weekend, but his odds are far better than +500 (16.7%), especially if we see more attrition than usual. Smith has occasionally flashed plenty of raw speed at tracks like this one, especially Michigan, where he has two top 10s in three starts and ranked ninth by average green-flag speed this year.

💰 My NASCAR bets at Las Vegas

Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the South Point 400 with the best odds from our top sports betting sites for today’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 13.61 units (Preece win)

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Las Vegas

Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Next Gen era:

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Las Vegas: 2026 South Point 400

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
• Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Las Vegas)
• TV: USA Network
• Track: 1.5-mile high-speed intermediate (267 laps, 400 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (80 laps), Stage 2 (85 laps), final stage (102 laps)