Mystics vs. Liberty WNBA Picks: Defense on Display in New York

Minus Elena Delle Donne, the Washington Mystics are trending toward being contrarian ATS favorites for Thursday’s road game against the New York Liberty in the Big Apple. We break down the matchup with our top Mystics-Liberty WNBA picks.

The only WNBA matchup scheduled for Thursday night pits the Mystics against the Liberty. 

Thursday night’s contest marks the start of a difficult stretch for the Mystics (10-6 ATS, 4-12 O/U). In addition to three of their next five games coming against teams with winning records, four of them are away from home. Washington comes into Thursday's game after routing the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday. The Mystics have won three of their last four games overall.

Although the Liberty (7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U) enter Thursday’s home game off a loss to the Chicago Sky, the overall vibe surrounding this team has certainly improved. New York snapped what was a seven-game losing skid on the first day of June and has won four of six games this month. While the Liberty remain four games under .500 at 5-9, things have certainly been trending in the right direction over the last two weeks.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Mystics and Liberty (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mystics vs. Liberty Game Info

Date: Thursday, June 16, 7 p.m. ETCoverage: Monumental Sports NetworkLocation: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Mystics vs. Liberty Odds

Mystics vs. Liberty Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers initially opened the Mystics as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. The WNBA betting market has shown a willingness to get behind the Liberty as home underdogs thus far. While the consensus point spread now sits at Mystics -4, there are also a few sportsbooks that have adjusted even further down to -3.5.

While the point spread has shrunk relative to the opening line, the opposite is true for the game total. At the time of writing, the market consensus of 157 sits one full point above the initial offering. There are a couple of shops that are already listing 157.5 as well. 

The Mystics have attracted a slight majority (63%) of all ATS bets. The Under has drawn 91% of the cash across the market.

https://twitter.com/WNBA/status/1537441228689580032

Mystics vs. Liberty Key Players

The injury report will definitely play a factor in Thursday’s contest. The impact will primarily be felt on the Mystics’ side as superstar Delle Donne has already been ruled out due to a lingering back injury after returning to play 26 minutes on Tuesday. With a difficult stretch of games upcoming, it appears the Mystics have opted to take a cautious approach with the former league MVP.

While the Liberty won’t be without their best player for Thursday’s home game, they do have multiple injuries of note to bettors. The team’s third-leading scorer, Betnijah Laney, is set to remain out until late July due to a knee injury. The other name that stands out on the injury report is guard Rebecca Allen. She is officially doubtful to play on Thursday due to an illness. Fortunately, the Liberty will count both Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the players who will be available.

Mystics vs. Liberty Picks

Side: Mystics -3.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ???Total: Under 157.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ???Game prop: Mystics team total Under 82.5 (-150 via BetMGM) ????

Mystics vs. Liberty Predictions

Mystics -3.5 (-115)

For what it’s worth, it seems as though the market is overreacting to the fact that the Mystics will be without Delle Donne. The fact that Washington ruled her out well in advance (Wednesday) and listed it as “rest” means that her absence should have already been baked into the opening point spread that bookmakers set for this game.

Based on how the Liberty have been playing of late, it makes total sense why some bettors might have fired on the opening spread of New York +4.5. However, with the line now having moved a full point from that, buying back on Washington is the best option.

Here’s the thing: the Mystics have already proven that they don’t need Delle Donne to win basketball games. Prior to Tuesday’s blowout of Phoenix at home, Washington had won two of three games in which Delle Donne played a grand total of seven minutes. A win over Chicago in which the superstar exited early and never returned was very eye-opening. 

The Mystics also blew out the Minnesota Lynx on the road and even went to overtime with Phoenix last Sunday prior to exacting revenge two days later. It’s worth noting that Delle Donne does not currently lead the Mystics in any major statistical categories either. Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin, and Natasha Cloud are more than capable of leading Washington to a road win over a Liberty team that is inferior in terms of overall depth and talent.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Under 157.5 (-110)

Take one look at where both the Mystics and Liberty stack up as far as average pace and bettors might be left scratching their heads as to why the market has actually moved the total up 1.5 points from the opening line. 

The Mystics rank dead last in average tempo this season and have seen 12 of 16 games played to date go under the betting total. For that matter, the Liberty aren’t much faster. The two teams have combined to average just over 157 possessions per 40 minutes on the season to date.

If previous games played without Delle Donne this season are any indication, Washington tends to speed things up significantly when the star big is not on the floor. This naturally makes sense given that the offense flows more through the backcourt duo of Atkins and Cloud under these circumstances.

In the first and only previous meeting between these teams this season, they combined to score 144 total points. Delle Donne was active and played 30 minutes in that contest. Will her absence be worth an 18-point swing to go Over the adjusted line of 157.5?

That’s a lot to ask, especially given how solid the Mystics are defensively.

Mystics team total Under 82.5 (-150)

Playing the Under on the Mystics team total certainly falls in line with our prediction that the game total will also stay under the number. However, it may or may not jive with the idea that Washington is the better team and will cover the spread even without Delle Donne. 

Bettors are encouraged to consider the market value they are getting with this line of 82.5 at BetMGM more than anything else. This number sits a full two points higher than the current Mystics team total of 80.5 at DraftKings. Oh, and the Liberty team total at both sportsbooks is 77.5. 

The DraftKings team total for Washington is also juiced to the Under at -120. Thus, we are only paying an additional 30 cents to gain a whole 2-point advantage on this Under prediction at BetMGM.

Where to Bet on Mystics-Liberty Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Mystics vs Liberty picks made on 6/16/2022 at 3:11 p.m. ET.