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Pole position for Monegasque driver Charles Leclerc as we look at our best Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions
Pole position for Monegasque driver Charles Leclerc of Scuderia Ferrari for the Formula 1 Grand Prix of Monaco. Photo by Hasan Bratic/Anadolu via AFP.

The Monaco Grand Prix, a highlight of the 2024 F1 calendar, gets underway at the Circuit de Monaco on Sunday, and we have you covered with our picks and predictions based on the odds from our best F1 betting sites with pole-sitter Charles Leclerc as the betting favorite.

Max Verstappen, who won the Monaco Grand Prix in 2023, will not start this year's race from the pole position, falling short of breaking Ayrton Senna's record of nine consecutive poles. Instead, Charles Leclerc secured the coveted pole position for the tight-quarters race, making himself the betting favorite according to the Monaco Grand Prix odds.

Despite not starting at the front, Verstappen has had a stellar season so far, winning five of the seven races. He is also the defending champion at Circuit de Monaco. The race is set to start at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday from Monte Carlo, Monaco.

Here are our 2024 Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions based on the F1 odds (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monaco Grand Prix picks

Picks made Friday

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Monaco Grand Prix odds 2024

Odds updated at Sunday at 6:18 a.m. ET.

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Charles Leclerc-235-260-250-225 🔥-300 ❄️
Oscar Piastri+550 🔥+470 ❄️+500+475+500
Max Verstappen+850 +750 ❄️+800 +800+1200 🔥
Carlos Sainz+1200+1400 +1200+1400+1200
Lando Norris+1300+1400 🔥+1200+1000 ❄️+1200 
George Russell+3000+5000 🔥+2500 ❄️+4000 +4000 
Lewis Hamilton+5500+6000 🔥+4000 ❄️+5000 +5000
Yuki Tsunoda+40000 🔥+20000+20000+30000 +25000
Alex Albon+40000 ❄️+42000+50000 +150000 🔥+50000

Monaco Grand Prix predictions

Favorite: Max Verstappen (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Monaco Grand Prix is unrivaled for its pomp and pageantry, and the race is more important to some drivers than remembering their wedding anniversaries or significant other’s birthday.

Verstappen won last year's event and is the dominant force in F1 racing. The 26-year-old phenom won 19 of 22 races last season, including last season's Monaco Grand Prix. Red Bull has won 36 of the previous 40 races, with only two drivers, Sainz and Lando Norris, beating the preeminent racing team since 2022.

Due to its abundance of treacherous hairpin turns and with no margin for error, securing pole position is more crucial at the Monaco Grand Prix than any other race. Verstappen had won eight successive pole positions, one shy of the all-time mark.

At -110, FanDuel offers the best odds of our best sports betting apps. It's impossible to turn a blind eye to Verstappen at those odds, which imply a winning probability of 52.38%. A winning $10 bet pays a profit of $9.09. If Verstappen wins, it will be his third at the storied Monte Carlo track. 

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Long shot: Carlos Sainz (+1800 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Carlos Sainz is positioned well to make a solid run at the Monaco Grand Prix. While everything depends on qualifying, the Ferrari driver will try to replicate his victory at the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix, another street race Sainz likened to Monte Carlo.

In recent rounds, Ferrari and McLaren introduced upgrades, bridging the gap between them and front-runners Red Bull. Those tweaks should facilitate faster times for Sainz in Monte Carlo. 

The 29-year-old Spaniard won the Australian Grand Prix and scored points on his eight appearances at Circuit de Monaco, taking second in 2021 and 2022. He sits fifth in the driver's standings, 68 points behind Verstappen.

At +1800, Caesars offers excellent value to win his first Monaco Grand Prix. The odds imply a 5.26% probability, and a $10 bet pays a profit of $180 if it hits. 

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Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

As mentioned, Mercedes has made improvements that should facilitate consistently faster lap times. Lando Norris had the fastest lap at the Monaco Grand Prix in 2022 and won the Miami Grand Prix earlier in May. While he hasn't had a fastest lap yet in the current campaign, he's been knocking on the door and should be bursting with confidence after his victory in Miami. 

DraftKings offers excellent value for Norris to repeat his 2022 fastest lap, implying a 20% probability. A $10 winning wager will pay a profit of $40. 

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Previous Monaco Grand Prix winners

YearDriverTeam
2023Max VerstappenRed Bull
2022Sergio PerezRed Bull
2021Max VerstappenRed Bull 
2019Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2018Daniel RicciardoRed Bull 
2017Sebastian VettelFerrari

Monaco Grand Prix info

Date: Sunday, May 26, 9 a.m. ET 
Location: Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco 
How to watch: ESPNews, ESPN+
Defending winner: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Monaco Grand Prix picks made Friday at 10 a.m. ET

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