Ally 400 Prop Picks: Mid-pack Drivers Value Bets To Score Top 10s

After a week off, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Music City for the Ally 400 at the 1.3-mile Nashville Superspeedway. Keep reading for our Ally 400 prop picks.

The Nashville Superspeedway seemed on its way to demolition until its surprising appearance on the Cup Series schedule for 2021. The venue had never hosted Cup before, but NASCAR wanted a trip to the Nashville market each year, and that’s what it got.

Kyle Larson won the debut event last season after leading 264 of 300 laps. Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Aric Almirola, Kurt Busch, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Busch also led, although none led for more than 13 laps. Nashville’s weathered surface and 1.3-mile length mean that it compares well to Darlington, and four of the top-five finishers at Nashville scored at least one top-five at Darlington.  

Here are my top prop picks for NASCAR’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway track in Gladeville, TN (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ally 400 Prop Picks

Top 10: Erik Jones (+250 via DraftKings) ?????Top 10: Michael McDowell (+1000 via DraftKings) ????Top 5: William Byron (+180 via BetMGM) ????

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Prop Predictions for the Ally 400

Top 10: Jones (+250)

We targeted Jones for a top-10 result back at Darlington, and he was running in the top 10 all day before an accident took him out. His odds were +140 back then, but they’re +250 now. That’s a mistake because Nashville compares well to Darlington, so it’s safe to expect another strong showing from Jones.

Jones owns five top-10 finishes this season, including a 10th-place result at the one-mile Dover Motor Speedway and a seventh at the 1.25-mile World Wide Technology (WWT) Raceway at Gateway. Like Nashville, those not-quite-1.5-mile tracks compare favorably to Darlington because of their length.

Jones is only +165 at BetMGM, so at least one sportsbook is paying attention.

Top 10: McDowell (+1000)

I am genuinely frustrated with myself for not getting more aggressive on McDowell earlier in the year. McDowell already has a career-high six top-10 finishes this year, and we’re only 16 races into the season. His hit rate (37.5%) is far above his implied odds (10%). Since McDowell’s odds don’t move much unless we’re at Daytona, Talladega, or a road course, bettors just haven’t been making the books pay for the mistake of undervaluing McDowell.

McDowell is a must-bet to score a top 10 each week until the regular season ends. If his odds stay this long, he’ll just need one more top-10 result for us to break even. McDowell scored a seventh-place result at Darlington in May and also finished a respectable 16th in last year’s race at Nashville.

The NextGen cars have given McDowell new life, and his odds of scoring another top 10 on Sunday are far higher than 10%. 

Top 5: Byron (+180)

Byron almost won this year’s race at Darlington but for Joey Logano’s bumper. The plucky 24-year-old had led 24 laps before Logano’s move sent him back to 13th. But Byron had been running up front all day — he finished sixth in Stage 1 and fifth in Stage 2 — and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates showed lots of speed, too.

After winning twice in the first eight races, Byron is yet to finish back inside the top five. It hasn’t been for a lack of speed, as Byron has led laps in half of the races since then. Byron finished third here last season, so it’s a good track to bet on him to rebound.

Where to Bet on the Ally 400

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Ally 400 picks made 6/24/2022 at 12:32 p.m. ET.