Rockies vs. Giants MLB Picks: Can Colorado Halt Webb's Home Dominance?

The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants close out their three-game series on Thursday after splitting the first two relatively low-scoring affairs. The home team sends out its ace in the matinee contest to take on Colorado's struggling lefty. Here are our Rockies-Giants picks.

One of last season's biggest surprises, the Giants have scuffled a bit during the first third of the 2022 campaign. Their plus-210 run differential was the second-best mark in all of baseball in 2021, but they rank ninth in that category this season primarily due to a struggling bullpen. San Francisco relievers own the sixth-worst ERA in baseball in 2022 at 4.43, which means the Giants will need Logan Webb to provide some length in his start Thursday if they hope to win this three-game set.

Meanwhile, the Rockies are once again awful. They sit last in the NL West thanks to a lineup that has struggled outside of slugging first baseman C.J. Cron. For his part, Cron has been abysmal on the road with just a .610 OPS, which is the case for almost every Rockies hitter this season, with Charlie Blackmon and Jose Iglesias the exceptions.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Thursday’s game between the Rockies and Giants (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Rockies vs. Giants Game Info

Date: Thursday, June 9, 3:45 p.m. ETTV: NBC Sports Bay Area, AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain, MLB NetworkLocation: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CAWeather: 65 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 3 mph right to left

Rockies vs. Giants Odds

Rockies vs. Giants Odds Analysis

The Giants opened as -260 favorites and are mostly hovering around -275 now. San Francisco is a -125 favorite on the -1.5 run line, as well. The Giants are drawing a staggering 99% of the handle on 94% of the tickets. For those looking to back the underdogs (there are better ways to donate money, though), Caesars Sportsbook has the Rockies at +230.

The total opened at 8 and remains there across the board. Early action has been on the Over.

Rockies vs. Giants Projected Pitchers

LHP Austin Gomber (2-6, 6.54 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs. RHP Logan Webb (5-1, 3.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Gomber has been absolutely annihilated in his last two starts. He allowed nine earned runs on 10 hits in five innings at home against the Atlanta Braves in his last time out, and the start before that was so much worse.

The Nationals welcomed Gomber to Washington on May 28 with a shellacking for the ages, scoring eight runs on seven hits and chasing the left-handed starter from the contest in the second inning. Those two performances catapulted Gomber's ERA from a respectable 4.11 to the diabolical 6.54 mark it sits at now. His peripherals suggest he's due for some slight positive regression, and he could have somewhat of a bounce-back game on Thursday against a Giants team that's hit much better against righties this season.

Webb was unlucky in his last time out in Miami against the Marlins. He cruised through the first four innings before running into some trouble in the fifth. With the Giants up 4-2 and two men on, manager Gabe Kapler pulled Webb in favor of reliever John Brebbia, who promptly gave up a two-run single to Garrett Cooper. It was only Webb's second start of the season in which he allowed more than three earned runs.

The right-hander hasn't been as good as he was in his breakout campaign last year, which can mostly be attributed to a lack of swing-and-miss in 2022. His swinging-strike rate in 2021 was 12.4% compared to just 10.7% this season, which is reflected in his lower strikeout numbers. However, Webb still owns a 3.25 FIP and 3.45 SIERA this season, both ranking near the top 20 among qualified starters.

Rockies vs. Giants Picks

Giants -1.5 (-125 via DraftKings)????Under 8 (-105 via FanDuel)????Logan Webb to record win (+120 via DraftKings)???

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Rockies vs. Giants RL Pick

Giants -1.5 (-125)

Webb is a blistering 9-0 at home in the last two seasons — spanning over 100 innings — and should pick up another win on Thursday in dominant fashion.

The Rockies' hitting prowess at Coors Field is well-documented. They lead the league in runs scored, hits, and batting average at home. Comparatively, though, Colorado has scored the second-fewest runs and owns the fourth-worst OPS on the road.

Meanwhile, the Giants have outscored opponents by an average of three runs in Webb's five home starts this season after outscoring opponents by an average of 2.6 runs in his 12 home starts in 2021. Not only does the right-hander pitch much better at home — he owns a 3.14 ERA over 149 career innings at Oracle Park compared to a 4.63 road ERA over 159 1/3 innings — but the Giants also tend to provide him with sufficient run support.

Look for that to be the case again Thursday.

Rockies vs. Giants O/U Pick

Under 8 (-105)

It may seem foolish to bet on Gomber's ability to suppress runs, but his decent track record combined with the Giants' relative inability to hit southpaws this season provides hope that he won't be sent to the shadow realm in back-to-back road starts.

In Gomber's last start at Oracle Park on May 9, he allowed five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings, though he exited in the sixth with the Rockies down just 3-2 and two men on before the bullpen allowed them to score.

An afternoon affair and scuffling starter would seem to be the perfect recipe for the Over. But Webb's dominance and San Francisco's performances against southpaws this season will be enough to keep this Under the total.

Rockies vs. Giants Prop Bet

Webb to record win (+120)

As mentioned above, Webb is 9-0 at home during the last two seasons. What's more impressive, though, is that he has fewer no-decisions than wins in that time, failing to serve as the pitcher of record only eight times. That means Webb has won 53% of his 17 home starts in the last two years, so a +120 price point against a dismal road team is just too good to pass up.

Where to Bet on Rockies vs. Giants Picks

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Rockies-Giants picks made 6/9/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.