Rays vs. Red Sox ALDS Game 3 Picks and Expert Analysis

After 20 runs scored in Game 2, can we expect the same amount of runs in Game 3 between the Rays and Red Sox? Let's take a look and the MLB odds and my baseball prediction for this game!

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox

Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 04:07 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Probable Pitchers:

? Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA)

? Rays: Drew Rasmussen (4-1, 2.84 ERA)

The Boston Red Sox pulled off an enormous upset in Game 2 to tie the ALDS at one-a-piece. The Rays went out to a 5-2 lead in the first inning and ultimately lost that game 14-6. The Rays pitching has been raved about all year but, at home, allowing 14 runs is really bad in the postseason. But it doesn’t matter if you lose by eight or one, a loss is a loss and the Rays will look to regroup.

Drew Rasmussen will take the mound for the Rays. The right-hander has a 2.84 ERA on the season and has allowed just four runs in his last 24 innings. He won’t go deeper than five innings but he can give the Rays quality outings and of course, give his team a chance to win every game he pitches in. In the last 30 days, however, Rasmussen has a 4.32 xFIP with 15.4 percent strikeouts.

https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1447212019959074818?s=20

The walks have been limited and the ground ball rate is high, but he’s also allowing 21.4 percent line drives and 47.6 percent hard contact. Through 48 at-bats, Rasmussen has allowed a .199 average to the Red Sox roster with a .563 OPS. Alex Verdugo is 3-for-6 with two extra base hits and Rafael Devers has a double, but other than that, the lineup for the Red Sox has been quiet against Rasmussen.

On the other hand, Nathan Eovaldi has been the most consistent pitcher for the Red Sox. He stepped up huge last week against the Orioles and on Tuesday, in the AL Wild Card game. In his last 11.1 innings pitched, Eovaldi has allowed one run with 15 strikeouts.

In the last 30 days, Eovaldi has an xFIP of 3.24 with 29.3 percent strikeouts and 4.9 percent walks. He’s also been a bit unlucky with a .346 BABIP in those 30 days but has limited line drive to 16.7 percent which is great when pitching in Fenway Park. The Rays have a wOBA of .312 against righties in the last 30 days. Tampa Bay has destroyed lefties, but they haven’t been nearly as good against righties.

Prediction

There were 20 runs in the last game between these two teams. However, even at Fenway Park, I’m not expecting many runs early in this game between these two teams. Both Rasmussen and Eovaldi have been extremely consistent and are pitching their tails off since September. Rasmussen has an ERA of 1.50 since September while Eovaldi has pitched incredibly in high-pressure situations, including his one-run performance against the Yankees in the Wild Card game.

MLB Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.