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Mariners vs. Blue Jays Player Prop Prediction, Odds: Top Picks for Guerrero, Springer, Castillo

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: April 8, 2024 6:17 PM EDT • 3 min 19 sec read.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays hits a solo home run against the New York Yankees, and we're offering our top Mariners vs. Blue Jays player props based on the best MLB odds.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays hits a solo home run against the New York Yankees. Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images via AFP.

We're celebrating the Toronto Blue Jays' home opener by offering our top Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays player props based on the best MLB odds.

After opening the 2024 MLB season with 10 consecutive road games, the Toronto Blue Jays (4-6) finally head home Monday to face the Seattle Mariners (4-6), with the first pitch expected at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre. Sportsnet is your destination for those watching from home.

Both teams are off to underwhelming starts thanks to continued struggles at the plate. Toronto owns the 12th-worst wRC+ in the majors this season, and it's scored the fewest runs in the AL East. Somehow, Seattle has been even more brutal, as it owns the fourth-lowest wRC+ and highest strikeout rate leaguewide.

Are we in for a pitcher's duel in Toronto? Or will one of these lineups finally wake up?

Here are our best Mariners vs. Blue Jays player prop prediction and MLB picks (odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mariners vs. Blue Jays game info & odds

  • When: Monday, April 8
  • First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ont.
  • How to watch: Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Blue Jays (-120 via Betway)

Mariners vs. Blue Jays player props

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Mariners vs. Blue Jays prediction

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 total bases (-165 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐  

Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn't playing like someone who's among the contenders by the MLB MVP odds. He owns just a .189/.333/.378 slash line through 10 games, and Guerrero is striking out at an absurdly high rate compared to his career average.

Guerrero has gone Over 1.5 total bases in four of his 10 games in 2024, including his last two, so he could be heating up. However, we're getting decent value on taking the Under for Guerrero's total bases prop on Monday.

Based on his projections, we're getting roughly 5% positive expected value on this bet thanks to Betway's -165 odds, which are the best across any of our best Ontario sportsbooks.

It's never fun to fade a team's biggest star in the club's home opener. But that's where we're seeing value on Monday.

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George Springer Under 1.5 total bases (-160 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐  

OK, don't come after me, Blue Jays fans. I know, this is another total bases Under for a Toronto star, but we're once again getting roughly 5% +EV on this bet based on George Springer's projections for Monday. When betting on a single game, you take value where you can.

Springer hasn't been much better than Guerrero this season, with a pedestrian .184/.326/.395 slash line. Also, much like Vlad, Springer has gone Over this total bases total in only four of his 10 games in 2024.

Once again, we're getting very solid odds on this Under via Betway's -160 listing when compared to the prices at our other best sports betting sites.

Luis Castillo Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐  

We conclude this episode of the official Blue Jays Fade Show (I promise I'm not doing this on purpose) with a bet on Mariners ace Luis Castillo's strikeout Over.

This profiles as maybe the best bet of the day, too, as we're getting better than 11% +EV through Betway's +105 odds based on the average projection from two of our trusted models.

Castillo has somewhat struggled early in 2024 in terms of his ERA (6.75) and WHIP (1.78). But he's still striking out opposing hitters at nearly the same rate Castillo has managed across the last two seasons. He also continues to serve as one of the contenders by the MLB Cy Young odds.

The right-hander has recorded 12 strikeouts across 10 2/3 innings in 2024, and he notched seven in his last start against the Cleveland Guardians.

But despite the team's struggles offensively, Toronto hasn't been striking out at an especially high rate. However, that's likely working in our favor, as Castillo's total is perhaps a strikeout too low.

Castillo squares off against Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, who gets the benefit of facing a more strikeout-prone Mariners team but is also far less prolific at racking up Ks. Berrios' total is set at 6.5 across all of our best sports betting apps, and Castillo's should likely be there, too.

Take advantage of these plus-money odds on a low total for one of the game's premier strikeout artists.

Mariners-Blue Jays player props made Monday at 11 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He's been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He's probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.