Dodgers vs. Braves Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (Thursday, Aug. 27)
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto and LHP Chris Sale square off tonight in the third game of a three-game set as we break down the Dodgers vs. Braves win probability.
The Braves have a 53% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be lower considering how difficult it is to sweep the Dodgers. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FS1, MLB.TV).
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Braves? Live MLB win probability
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The Braves have a 53% win probability, and more than $185,000 has already been traded in this market. The Dodgers opened with a 51.1% win probability on Tuesday morning, but money has come in on the Braves as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the Braves are available at 54¢, with more than $97,000 in liquidity at that price.
The Braves have won the first two games of this series and three in a row overall. After Tuesday's 4-3 win, they won 6-5 Wednesday on a walk-off pinch-hit single by Ha-Seong Kim. Atlanta's win probability was as low as 28.8% when the Dodgers had the bases loaded with no outs in the seventh inning, tied 5-5.
With the bases loaded, Kyle Tucker flew out to left field. In the ensuing at-bat, Alek Thomas grounded into a double play, ending the inning and opening the door for the Braves to eventually break the tie in the ninth inning. Tommy Edman hit a two-run homer in the third inning, his fifth of the season. The Dodgers entered this series on a six-game win streak.
My prediction: Dodgers win (47¢). While Sale is still dominant at 37 years old, I don't trust this Braves offense to give him enough run support. The Braves have scored three or fewer runs in seven of their last 12 games, and Yamamoto pitched six shutout innings in Atlanta the last time he faced them (May 2, 2025).
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Dodgers vs. Braves?
| Player | Chance | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 16% | 16¢ |
| Matt Olson | 16% | 16¢ |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 15% | 15¢ |
| Austin Riley | 13% | 13¢ |
| Drake Baldwin | 12% | 12¢ |
| Mookie Betts | 11% | 11¢ |
| Ozzie Albies | 9% | 9¢ |
| Freddie Freeman | 9% | 9¢ |
Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson are tied for the highest probability to homer at 16%. Interestingly, this is the lowest I've seen Ohtani's home run probability. However, it makes sense, as he hasn't homered in six straight games, and Sale hasn't allowed a home run in any of his last seven starts.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has the second-highest home run probability at 15%, followed by Austin Riley (13%), Drake Baldwin (12%), and Mookie Betts (11%). The only two players available at the time of publishing with a home run probability under 10% are Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman, who are both at 9%.
My prediction: Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (9¢). Don't overreact to Sale's recent hot stretch. He's had stretches this season where he's allowed five home runs over four starts, so it's not like it's impossible for players to homer against him. Freeman has hit two home runs against Sale in his career and also has two doubles against him in 12 career at-bats. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Dodgers vs. Braves?
More than $60,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 38% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 39¢, you can instantly get more than $29,000 filled.
The Dodgers have had a first-inning run scored in 50.38% of their games, while the Braves have seen a first-inning run in 49.62% of theirs. Yamamoto hasn't allowed a first-inning run in two of his last three starts, while Sale has thrown a scoreless first inning in 12 of his last 13.
My prediction: No run in the first inning (62¢). Sale has allowed just three earned runs across 23 first innings pitched (1.17 ERA). With how dominant he has been his first time through the lineup, it's hard to buy Yes contracts at this price.
📊 Dodgers vs. Braves win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 47% | 51.1% | ↓ 4.1% |
| Braves | 53% | 48.9% | ↑ 4.1% |
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Braves
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 27
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Dodgers starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA)
- Braves starter: Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20 ERA)
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