MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Aug. 27
My MLB home run picks went 1-2 for a profitable night Wednesday, and we're looking to keep the momentum rolling with a short slate Thursday. My home run predictions today feature Ben Rice, Rafael Devers, and Alejandro Kirk, who all should be able to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 27
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice to homer (+303 via DraftKings) | 0.66u β 2u | Rice is slugging .637 against fastballs, Wesneski's most-used pitch type vs. LHH. |
| Rafael Devers to homer (+458 via DraftKings) | 0.44u β 2u | Cabrera throws 58.8% fastballs, and Devers is slugging .540 against that pitch type. |
| Alejandro Kirk to homer (+710 via DraftKings) | 0.28u β 2u | Kirk's highest SLG is against fastballs, Cameron's most-used pitch type vs. RHH. |
Total wagered: 1.38 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+303)
We cashed on Rice to homer (+339) Wednesday night, and I'm going back to the well with him now that he has an even better pitching matchup.
Fastballs are Astros starter Hayden Wesneski's most-used pitch type against left-handed hitters, and Rice is slugging .637 against fastballs. He hit a four-seamer into the short porch Wednesday, and he has a strong chance of doing it again tonight.
DraftKings' +303 odds for Rice to homer are the best available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🍚 SBR Edge: Let Rice Cook
Rice is slugging .561 against right-handed pitching, with 25 of his 35 home runs this season coming against righties.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+458)
Not only has Devers homered in each of his last three games, but he also has a favorable pitching matchup tonight to go yard again.
Devers is slugging .540 against fastballs, Diamondbacks starter Jose Cabrera's most-used pitch type against left-handed hitters. The 24-year-old rookie has allowed three home runs across his last three starts and will likely struggle against one of the hottest hitters in MLB this week.
Devers to homer (+458) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Alejandro Kirk (+710)
While this is more of a long-shot pick, Kirk's +710 odds translate to just a 12.35% implied probability - way too low.
Kirk's highest slugging percentage comes against fastballs (.435), and Royals starter Noah Cameron throws fastballs 48.2% of the time (his most-used pitch type) against right-handed hitters.
The Blue Jays catcher is slashing .342/.422/.526 with four home runs in August and should continue to make up for his slow start to the season. Kirk to homer (+710) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
⚾️ More home run picks today
Looking for more? I like the price on a 10-time All-Star as I break down the Dodgers vs. Braves win probability.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turner HIll | Giants | 1+ home runs | +850 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | 1+ home runs | +425 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Astros | 1+ home runs | +250 |
| Gerrit Cole | Yankees | Over 5.5 strikeouts | -135 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Brewers | Over 3.5 hits allowed | +110 |
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ben Rice to homer
- Rafael Devers to homer
- Alejandro Kirk to homer
Best odds: +18114 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-62-4 | -14.85 units β | -19.6% β |
| Player props | 9-47-3 | -9.7 units β | -26.2% β |
| Game props | 8-8 | -3.1 units β | -10.7% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Run lines | 0-1 | -2.36 units β | -100% β |
| Totals | 1-0 | +0.5 units β | 100% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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