Brewers vs. Red Sox MLB Picks: Tellez To Lead Red Hot Milwaukee

For the first time since 2014, the Milwaukee Brewers head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox. We have highlighted the odds, line movement, and best picks for Brewers-Red Sox.

In the National League, there’s not many teams as hot as the Brewers right now. Since the All-Star break, they’ve gone 5-1, outscoring opponents 42-30. Of their last six, they’ve recorded three games with at least nine runs, including two 10 run games. In their most recent game, Rowdy Tellez’s 2-for-4 night at the plate with two home runs and six RBIs versus the Minnesota Twins made him the hero for the Brew Crew.

For the Red Sox, there hasn’t been much to cheer about since the start of the second half of the season, or really the entire season. They opened their ten-game homestand following the All-Star break with a doozy of a loss to division rivals the Toronto Blue Jays. Of course, by doozy I mean, they were outscored 28-5. They ended up splitting their most recent series with the Guardians, and while it was certainly a step in the right direction, the mood in the Red Sox clubhouse as the trade deadline approaches surely can’t be the most optimistic. 

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s game between the Brewers and Red Sox (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Brewers vs. Red Sox Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, July 29, 7:10 p.m. ETLocation: Fenway Park, Boston, MAWeather: 91 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind E 13 mph

Brewers vs. Red Sox Odds Analysis 

The Brewers are the moneyline favorites in this game ranging from -165 at DraftKings to -175 at PointsBet. 80% of the cash and 89% of the tickets are on the Brewers.

All the sportsbooks have the total set at nine. Despite 98% of the cash on the Over, the total has not moved up from the opening number of nine.

Brewers vs. Red Sox Projected Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff (8-3, 3.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs. Austin Davis (1-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

The Red Sox today made the decision to open the game with reliever Austin Davis rather than start Brayan Bello as was initially planned. This will be Davis’s third start this season as an opener as the Red Sox aim to use the left-hander to zone in on key matchups in the Brewers’ lineup such as Rowdy Tellez. Davis has pitched two scoreless innings as a starter twice, and in those two games the Red Sox have gone 1-1. 

As for Brandon Woodruff, he’ll be making his 15th start of the season tonight. Woodruff’s been strong as of lately, showing shades of the ace the Brewers know him to be. He’s recorded a 2.31 ERA in his last two starts. His home/road splits lean in favor of home as he’s struggled on the road with a 5.26 ERA. Woodruff has never pitched at Fenway Park.

Brewers vs. Red Sox Picks

Brewers (-165 via DraftKings) ???Over 9 runs (-115 via BetMGM) ????Rowdy Tellez to record 2+ hits (+185 via PointsBet) ??

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Brewers vs. Red Sox ML Pick

Brewers (-165)

The Brewers are the heavy outright favorite in this matchup for obvious reasons, and even more so when you look at their track record as the ML favorites.

The Brewers are 24-13 when favored at -168 or better. Add onto the fact they’re a team on a hot streak offensively that can suddenly score 10 runs in a game, and they have the obvious offensive advantage.

While most of the Brewers are not accustomed to the dynamics of Fenway, Hunter Renfroe’s been an important bat in Milwaukee’s lineup this season. Traded from the Red Sox in the offseason in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., Renfroe swung well at Fenway in 2021, making him a contender for a strong night at the plate.

The Red Sox have struggled in nearly every category — hitting, fielding, starting pitching, and in relief as of lately. As they look to find their footing, the red-hot Brewers don’t seem to be their best chance to get right.

Brewers vs. Red Sox O/U Pick 

Over 9 (-115)

This is the first time this season the Red Sox are using an opener. While Davis has been one of their stronger relievers, that also means he’s not going to be available out of relief later on. The Red Sox bullpen has had issues closing out games over the course of the last couple of weeks, and no Davis is a bigger blow than people realize. 

As for Woodruff, while he is a solid starter for Milwaukee and pretty consistent, his stats sway in favor of his numbers at home. On the road, he has a 5.26 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP. Add onto the fact most of the Brewers have never played at Fenway before, and it can be a tough park to field in especially in the outfield, and that's why I’m taking the Over.

Brewers vs. Red Sox Prop Pick

Tellez to record 2+ hits (+185)

As I mentioned the Brewers have had a lot of hot-handed hitters lately and in this case, it’s all about riding the hot hand. 

Tellez went 2-for-4 on Wednesday against the Twins with his two home runs and six RBIs. While he might not have a night that impactful, he’s just one of those guys who has been swinging the bat so well this season. In his last seven games, he’s slashing .259/.333/.630 with seven hits including three home runs. 

Given the many question marks surrounding the Red Sox pitching, I’m banking on Tellez to get two or more hits.

https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/1552405222529564673

Where to Bet on Brewers vs. Red Sox

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Brewers-Red Sox picks from 7/29/2022 at 10:23 a.m. ET.