MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Friday, Sept. 18
The MLB is back with a full 15-game slate on Friday night, so we've got plenty of hitters to target for my home run predictions today. It's been a rough couple of days, going 0-6 with home run props, so let's dig deep for a winner on Friday night.
My MLB home run picks include Willson Contreras. The Red Sox 1B has hit a home run in his past two appearances, while facing a prime matchup against southpaw Ian Seymour at Tropicana Field tonight.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 18
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (+375 via BetMGM) | 0.27u β 1.01u | Contreras faces Seymour, who has surrendered 8 home runs in his last 5 starts. |
| Alejandro Kirk (+950 Caesars) | 0.25u β 2.37u | Kirk has logged 2 home runs in his last 7 outings. |
| Kody Clemens (+446 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 1.11u | Clemens has hit 11 of 14 home runs on the road against right-handed pitching. |
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Willson Contreras (+375)
Contreras leads the Red Sox with 27 home runs this season. He's recorded 8 home runs against left-handed pitching, including 5 on the road.
Tonight, he'll face Seymour, who has allowed 8 home runs in his last 5 starts for the Rays. Seymour is ranked in the 11th percentile for barrel percentage allowed (10.0).
Contreras sits in the 89th percentile for xSLG (.486) and barrel percentage (13.4) this year. He'll have a great chance to go yard at Tropicana Field tonight.
Go to BetMGM and bet on Contreras' home run prop at +375 odds.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited/MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: No Wind at the Trop
While Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, the lack of wind indoors bodes well for Contreras, who profiles as an elite hitter in key power metrics.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Alejandro Kirk (+950)
Kirk finds himself in a favorable matchup against Kumar Rocker tonight. The Blue Jays' catcher has hit 8 of 10 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026.
September has been a strong month for Kirk, who has 2 home runs in his last 7 contests for Toronto. Rocker has also allowed 3 home runs in his last 2 starts at Globe Life Field.
Caesars has a massive price disparity on Kirk, listing him at +950 in the home run prop betting market. Let's grab this number and bet on Kirk to hit a home run tonight.
- Time: MLB.TV
- Where to watch: 8:05 p.m. ET
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+446)
Minnesota has a lot of slugging talent in its lineup, including Clemens, who has amassed 26 home runs this season. The lefty has hit 11 of 14 home runs on the road against right-handed pitching.
The Angels are trotting out Grayson Rodriguez on the mound tonight. The right-handed starter has allowed 4 home runs in his last 3 starts, including 2 during his last outing at Angel Stadium.
Wind will be blowing out at 9 mph, giving a boost to baseballs in Anaheim tonight. Clemens doesn't need much help, considering he's ranked 90th in avg exit velo (92.1 mph) and in the 82nd percentile for xSLG (.458) in 2026.
Bet on Clemens' home run prop at +446 odds on DraftKings.
- Time: MLB.TV
- Where to watch: 9:38 p.m. ET
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Willson Contreras (+375)
- Alejandro Kirk (+550)
- Kody Clemens (+300)
Best odds: +12250 via Sportsbook (0.10u -> 12.25u)
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