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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Perez Dazzle in First MLB Start vs. Reds?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: May 12, 2023 9:05 AM EDT • 4 min 4 sec read.

Twelve new series openers and three other games in series that started Thursday make a full 15-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.

New York Mets righty Justin Verlander’s win over the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday was no ordinary victory, as he became the 21st pitcher in MLB history to earn a win over all 30 teams, per MLB.com. Verlander once again showed his durability in the win, as he has now thrown at least seven innings in 52% of his 484 career starts, which bettors can use as knowledge for future prop wagers.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s MLB schedule and odds

  • Cincinnati Reds (+125) vs. Miami Marlins (-145)
  • Seattle Mariners (-130) vs. Detroit Tigers (+110)
  • New York Mets (-135) vs. Washington Nationals (+115)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-155)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (Off) vs. New York Yankees
  • Atlanta Braves (-155) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+135)
  • Los Angeles Angels (+110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-130)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (+100) vs. Boston Red Sox (-120)
  • Chicago Cubs (+135) vs. Minnesota Twins (-155)
  • Houston Astros (-145) vs. Chicago White Sox (+125)
  • Kansas City Royals (+195) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-230)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-155) vs. Colorado Rockies (+135)
  • San Francisco Giants (-125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+105)
  • Texas Rangers (-175) vs. Oakland Athletics (+150)
  • San Diego Padres (+125) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)

Friday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Adam Wainwright Over 6.5 hits allowed (-120 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Ian Happ Over 0.5 RBIs (+210 via FanDuel) vs. Twins ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Dustin May to record win (+180 via DraftKings) vs. Padres ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Marlins (-142 via FanDuel) vs. Reds ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Adam Wainwright Over 6.5 hits allowed vs. Red Sox (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Adam Wainwright’s first start of the season against the Detroit Tigers was a bit of a “good news, bad news” scenario. Wainwright cruised through the first four innings, allowing zero earned runs and just two singles. However, he eventually was tagged for eight hits and four earned runs in five innings (he appeared in the sixth but did not retire either of the two batters faced).

Wainwright now faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that leads the majors in batting average (.297), wOBA (.369), and OPS (.851) in home games and is fourth in wRC+. Wainwright has allowed at least one hit per inning in four of the last six seasons. Given that the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA and has pitched the fifth-most innings of any NL team, Wainwright may be left to eat more innings than usual, especially with two more games to play in a ballpark that typically produces high-scoring games. 

We are getting slightly better value making this wager at DraftKings, as Caesars charges more in juice at -127 odds.

Player prop: Ian Happ Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Twins (+210 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ is fourth on the team with 18 RBIs, but we expect more run production in the future, considering he is second among all Cubs hitters with at least 21 games played with a .894 OPS. Happ has four hits in 10 at-bats against Minnesota Twins righty Sonny Gray, with two of those hits going for extra bases. He has also accumulated five RBIs in that small sample size and struck out just twice, suggesting he is not as vulnerable to Gray’s elite strikeout stuff (his 10.58 K/9 rate is 13th-best in the majors).

Happ ranks top 25 in both batting average (.300) and OPS (.894), but this is only a three-star play as he has driven in a run in just two of his last nine games.

The biggest return for this wager comes from FanDuel, as Caesars and DraftKings offer +184 and +205, respectively.

Player prop: Dustin May to record win vs. Padres (+180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Plenty of trends suggest the Los Angeles Dodgers are a good bet to beat the San Diego Padres. Los Angeles has won 38 of its last 52 home meetings with San Diego, and while the Dodgers are 0-4 in Dustin May’s previous four home starts with an O/U ranging from 7.0 to 8.5, they are 4-0 in his last four at home when the O/U is 9.0 or greater (the total is 9.0 for this series opener).

May has held current Padres hitters to a .222/.341/.447 slash line, as he has overcome some control issues (12 walks) in 72 combined at-bats. Though players like Manny Machado have a 1.011 OPS against May, the righty has also dominated other big bats like Fernando Tatis and Trent Grishman, who are a combined 3-for-25 with 10 strikeouts against him.

With so many trends favoring Los Angeles as it opposes Padres southpaw Blake Snell, we are opting for better value at DraftKings (compared to Caesars’ +162 odds) and backing May to earn the win.

Friday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Marlins ML vs. Reds (-142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez makes MLB history Friday as the first big-leaguer born in 2003. The 20-year-old eighth-ranked prospect in baseball earned a huge promotion right out of Double-A, in which he pitched to a 2.32 ERA and a 4.67 K:BB ratio in 31 innings this year. He should find instant success against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has scored the third-fewest runs in the National League and ranks 28th or worse in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.

Opposing Perez is righty Graham Ashcraft, who leads the Reds starters in WHIP and WAR. However, Ashcraft pitches more to contact (7.2 K/9 rate) than teammates Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, which opens a path to offensive success for a Marlins team that ranks in the top 10 in the majors in BABIP.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps at which one can find the Marlins at better than -142 odds. The line movement supports this wager, as DraftKings opened as low as -130 yesterday.

MLB best bets made 5/12/2023 at 6:22 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.