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2024 U.S. Open Matchups Picks: Pinehurst No. 2 Set to Challenge the Field

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: June 12, 2024 11:19 AM EDT • 4 min 25 sec read.

Scottie Scheffler tees off on the second hole during the final round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club as we look at our U.S. Open matchup picks.
Scottie Scheffler tees off on the second hole during the final round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Photo by Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch /USA TODAY NETWORK.

Next up during the 2024 PGA Tour season is a trip to Pinehurst No. 2 for the U.S. Open, and we’ve found odds from our best golf betting sites to recommend several U.S. Open matchups picks to wager on ahead of Round 1 on Thursday.

Oddsmakers are extremely bullish on Scottie Scheffler following his fifth win at Muirfield Village this past weekend. The World No. 1 ranked golfer has only played 13 events on the PGA Tour this campaign, but he's recorded five outright wins. That includes his first at the Memorial Tournament, marking his first career victory past April. 

Other golfers in the field that oddsmakers favor ahead of the U.S. Open include Rory McIlroy (+1000), Xander Schauffele (+1000), Collin Morikawa (+1400), Viktor Hovland (+1800), and Bryson DeChambeau (+2000). DeChambeau has been strong at both previous majors during 2024, recording a T6 finish at The Masters and a solo runner-up result during the PGA Championship.

It’s been a decade since Pinehurst No. 2 last hosted a U.S. Open event, and that tournament only featured three golfers in the field under par. This par-70 course will test every club in the bag while emphasizing ball-striking and scrambling around the heavily contoured greens. 

To complement our U.S. Open expert picks and U.S. Open long shot picks, here are our U.S. Open matchups picks for Pinehurst No. 2 based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.

U.S. Open matchups

(confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

  • Collin Morikawa (-125 via FanDuel) vs. Ludvig Aberg 18-hole matchbet (Round 1) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • 1st Round 3-Balls: Scottie Scheffler (+125 via BetMGM) vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Xander Schauffele ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Tony Finau (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Patrick Cantlay 18-hole matchup ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Collin Morikawa vs. Ludvig Aberg 18-hole matchbet (Round 1) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re investing in Collin Morikawa against Ludvig Aberg in the 18-hole matchbet betting market in Round 1. Both golfers are in strong form, but Morikawa has been dialed in lately, challenging Scheffler through the final stroke at the 72nd hole during the Memorial Tournament. 

Aberg is a difficult player to fade since he tends to eliminate miscues, but Morikawa is ranked 15th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 10th SG: around the green. Morikawa is also the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour and ranks top 25 in scrambling, which is going to be an immense advantage at Pinehurst No. 2. 

Morikawa has recorded a first-round score of 68 or lower in six consecutive events, so we’re staking a unit on him to win this 18-hole matchbet against Aberg in Round 1.

Best odds: -125 via FanDuel

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First round 3-balls: Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Xander Schauffele ⭐⭐⭐⭐

No surprise here. We’re investing in Scheffler to continue his dominance at Pinehurst No. 2 right away with a wager on his 3-ball matchup odds in Round 1 against Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.

All three of these golfers have won at least one event in 2024, combined triumphs that include two majors. But Scheffler profiles as the most dangerous scoring threat, despite possessing average putting skill. Ranking top five in SG: tee-to-green, SG: approaching the green, and SG: around-the-green, Scheffler is a heavy-betting favorite to win his 3-ball matchup on Thursday for a reason.

McIlroy is strong off the tee, but his approach shots leave much to be desired. Schauffele is a consistent player in all aspects of his game, with the best putting skill in this group. But he can’t match Scheffler’s power and hole proximity on approach.

A one-unit wager is sufficient for this 3-ball matchup bet on Scheffler during Round 1.

Best odds: +125 via BetMGM

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Tony Finau vs. Patrick Cantlay 18-hole matchup ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay are available in the 18-hole matchup betting market through DraftKings, with oddsmakers assigning -115 odds to both golfers.

It’s been an uncharacteristically quiet season for Cantlay, who sits outside the top 50 in all strokes gained metrics. Yes, the Californian tends to perform well in Round 1 at events, but Finau's skills fit a course like Pinehurst No. 2 much better.

Finau ranks fourth in SG: approaching the green and 31st SG: around the green, although his putting and off-the-tee prowess need improvement. Cantlay has failed to go under 70 in the first round during three straight events, and it won’t be any easier at a lengthy, contoured track like Pinehurst No. 2.

Finau ranks 30th in total driving, 21st for greens in regulation rate, and 16th in hole proximity. He’s also eighth in birdie average and 43rd for scoring average, making this a five-star pick warranting one final unit to wrap up our Round 1 matchups on Thursday.

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings

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How to bet on golf

Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.

Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.

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Written By:
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.