We're our best Genesis Invitational picks as Tiger Woods returns to competitive golf based on the odds from our best golf betting sites with Scottie Scheffler as the betting favorite.
Tiger Woods returns to a truly competitive golf event for the first time since making the cut but withdrawing due to injury from the 2023 Masters. He's the playing host of this week's Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.
Woods tied for 45th in this event last year, in what was his first competitive outing since the 2022 British Open. He's a sizable long shot in this strong 70-man field.
Scottie Scheffler remains the betting favorite, as he's been each week he's teed it up this year while still occupying the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). Scheffer's given a slight edge over Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland by the PGA Tour odds from our best sports betting sites.
Genesis Invitational picks
- Viktor Hovland to win (+1400 via DraftKings)
- Cameron Young to finish top 10 (+340 via FanDuel)
- Jason Day to be top Rest of the World (+1100 via FanDuel)
Genesis Invitational odds 2024
Genesis Invitational odds as of Wednesday at 10:15 a.m. ET
Genesis Invitational picks
Viktor Hovland to win
Best odds: +1400 via DraftKings
Hovland, the fourth-ranked golfer in the OWGR and third-best golfer in this field, has played sparingly to begin the 2024 PGA Tour season. After winning twice during the FedEx Cup Playoffs (including the Tour Championship), Hovland recorded two top-five finishes on the DP World Tour to close out 2023. Since, he has played just The Sentry (T-22) and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T-58).
Hovland withdrew from last week's WM Phoenix Open in preparation for the third Signature Event of the year. I like that he took that extra time to rest and prep for a Riviera course that has suited him very well in the past with finishes of T-5, T-4, and T-20 in his three career appearances. Those were in each of the past three years.
Even in limited action, Hovland ranks near the top of this field in strokes gained: total across everyone's last 16 rounds. He has been particularly strong off the tee and from tee to green, while seemingly improving the short game issues that plagued much of his young career.
While a couple of sportsbooks have raised Hovland's odds to win the Genesis Invitational to +1600 as of Wednesday morning, we're still making this bet at DraftKings due to the +300 odds boost for any one outright bet this week.
That bring's Hovland's odds to a market-high of +1700. That new price returns a profit of $170 on a $10 wager vs. the $140 return with same investment on his standard odds of +1400.
Cameron Young to finish top 10
Best odds: +340 via FanDuel
We're able to take advantage of an outlier number from FanDuel by price shopping across our best sports betting apps. The odds of Young finishing in the top 10 of this field are as low as +250 via BetMGM. Getting this bet in at FanDuel would be a difference of $9 on a winning $10 bet.
Young finished T-8 in last week's WM Phoenix Open while averaging 1.30 strokes gained: putting per round. While everyone moves from Bermuda grass to the more unpredictable Poa annua putting surfaces this week, we'll take the boost in confidence for Young with his putter.
Young also ranked fourth in last week's field in SG: off-the-tee. That's an area where he's excelled early this season, particularly in distance. In just two appearances in this event, his 2.89 true strokes gained per round lead all in attendance, with a T-2 finish in 2022 and a T-20 result last year.
He ranked fifth in SG: off-the-tee among all golfers to play all four rounds last year.
Jason Day top Rest of the World
Best odds: +1100 via FanDuel
We hit on Day at +850 to be the top golfer in the Rest of the World market during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We're going back to that well against nearly the same field and at another course where Day has had plenty of experience.
Day has 18 competitive rounds played at Riviera Country Club. His best finish in that time came with last year's T-9 result. Early in 2024, Day is showing similar strengths with his driver and putter, while also gaining 1.29 strokes per round from tee to green. His putter was a huge asset in this event last year, and the Australian has had plenty of success on Poa annua greens for his career.
I also value Day's rest after skipping last week's event.
Who is the Genesis Invitational favorite?
Best odds: +700 via bet365
Scheffler is the favorite again this week with an implied win probability of 12.50% in the 70-man field, based on the +700 odds from bet365.
DraftKings opened Scheffler at +750 but that number was quickly shortened on Monday morning. Long-shot winners have remained the theme of the 2024 PGA Tour season, and there are still plenty of other top golfers in this field for Scheffler to be carrying such short odds.
The No. 1 golfer in the world tied for third in the WM Phoenix Open after being tied for the lead for a period on Sunday afternoon at TPC Scottsdale. While there is no better ball-striker on the planet right now, putting continues to hold Scheffler back from what feels like an inevitable run of dominance.
He's a pass for me at these odds in this field.
Tiger Woods' Genesis Invitational odds
Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings
Tiger's +18000 odds to win the Genesis Invitational from FanDuel represent an implied win probability of 0.55%, according to our odds converter. Even a 1-in-70 chance with the small field would equate to a 1.43% chance if all was equal.
But all isn't equal, and Scheffler is a sizable favorite for well-earned reasons. Woods is among the lowest-ranked golfers in the field at No. 893 in the OWGR.
The other thing to consider when contemplating a wager on the GOAT at these high odds, is that sportsbooks have shown to be more willing to offer cashouts early in tournaments if Woods is even one or two strokes under par and threatening the first page of the leaderboard. This is because the books always face such a significant liability because of the high volume of bets on Woods. If you have the chance to turn a $10 bet into a profit on Thursday, you should take it.
We dove further into Tiger Woods' Genesis Invitational odds here.
Riviera Country Club course info
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,322 yards
- Greens: Poa Annua
- Architect: George C. Thomas Jr., William P. Bell
Genesis Invitational tournament info
- Where: Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, CA
- When: Thursday, Feb. 15 - Sunday, Feb. 18
- Field: 70
- 2023 champion: Jon Rahm
- Purse: $20 million
- FedEx Cup points: 700
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