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USC vs. Utah Picks, Predictions College Football Week 7: Can Utes Hand Trojans First Loss?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 15, 2022 9:14 AM EDT • 2 min 41 sec read.

Cam Rising of the Utah Utes throws a pass to Brant Kuithe under pressure from Ron Stone Jr. of the Washington State Cougars on Sept. 25, 2021 at Rice Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Cam Rising of the Utah Utes throws a pass to Brant Kuithe under pressure from Ron Stone Jr. of the Washington State Cougars on Sept. 25, 2021 at Rice Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah. Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images via AFP.

The winner of Saturday night's meeting between the USC Trojans and Utah Utes will stand a good chance of getting to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Check out our top USC-Utah picks below.

USC is the only 4-0 team in the Pac-12. A road win at Utah would give the Trojans a massive step towards a conference championship game and CFP berth. The Utes are one of two ranked teams remaining on the Trojans’ schedule. 

Utah’s two losses came at Florida and UCLA, but the Utes won their three home games by a combined 150 points. These two teams split their last eight meetings, and though the Utes won three of their last four at home against the Trojans, USC prevailed in the previous meeting in Utah 33-17.

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 7.

Here are our top picks for the Week 7 game between USC and Utah (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USC vs. Utah Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Oct. 15, 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
  • Weather: 75 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 8-mph WSW wind

USC vs. Utah Odds

USC vs. Utah Odds Analysis

Bettors are strongly aligned on the Over in this primetime clash. After the consensus line opened at 58, it's up to 65 as of Saturday afternoon with the Over drawing 65% of the cash on 66% of the tickets.

Public action is a little more split on the side. Utah has drawn 73% of the handle on just 42% of the tickets. The line has been adjusted from Utah -3 to -3.5.

USC vs. Utah Picks

  • Spread: Utah -3 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★
  • Over/Under: Under 65 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★
  • Game Prop: USC team total Under 30.5 (-106 via FanDuel) ★★

USC vs. Utah ATS Pick

Utah -3 (-110) ★★

USC enters with the eighth-best Resume SP+ despite ranking 24th overall. Its top-eight Resume SP+ ranking is surprising, considering the Trojans haven't played a ranked team, and their two road wins over Stanford and Oregon State were by an eight point average. USC had the 103rd-ranked strength of schedule entering last weekend’s date with Washington State. 

Utah is the only two-loss team ranked in the SP+ top 15 (10th overall), largely because the Utes went on the road and challenged Florida and UCLA. The Bruins were the highest-rated defense the Utes faced all season, but Utah still totaled 479 total yards, balanced between 287 passing yards and 192 rushing.

The Utes run the ball at college football's 26th-highest rate (57%) and stayed true to that identity with 43 runs on 77 offensive plays (55.8%) against the Bruins. The Utes’ physical nature is something USC hasn't faced, and their ability to win in the trenches will go a long way toward covering this field-goal spread.

USC vs. Utah O/U Pick

Under 65 (-110) ★★★

USC and Utah rank No. 11 and 12, respectively, in Offense Success Rate and are each in the top 16 in Offensive Power Success. However, Utah’s defense held up considerably despite facing two high-scoring offenses, with above-average metrics in Defensive Predictive Points Added and Defensive Rushing Explosiveness. 

While USC ranks sixth in points scored per drive and 15th in Offensive SP+, it hasn't played a team ranked in the SP+ top 40. USC’s last road game against Oregon State was offensively underwhelming. The Trojans were held to a season-low 357 total yards and 180 passing yards.

Another daunting environment awaits in Salt Lake City, but we're encouraged by USC’s defensive performance against Washington State. The Cougars scored a combined 107 points against their three previous opponents, but the Trojans held them scoreless for the final 43 minutes.

USC vs. Utah Prop Pick

USC team total Under 30.5 (-106) ★★

USC owns an FBS-best +14 turnover margin and leads in points off turnovers (69). So while the Trojans are scoring touchdowns on 49% of their drives, don't expect the same level of offensive output against a talented Utes defense, especially if Utah quarterback Cam Rising doesn't gift the Trojans defense with turnovers. Utah possessed the ball for nearly 34 minutes against UCLA, but that time of possession will pay off in better defensive statistics this week.

Where to Bet on USC vs. Utah Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

USC-Utah picks made 10/12/2022 at 5:57 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.