USF vs. Tulsa Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Who Will End Long Losing Streak?
Two disappointing American Athletic Conference foes meet Friday when South Florida visits Tulsa. Both are looking to snap a long losing skid. Here are our USF-Tulsa college football picks.
South Florida (1-9, 0-6) has yet to beat an FBS opponent this season, as its only win came against FCS-level Howard. The Bulls lost their nine contests by an average of 18.3 points, and only Northwestern and Akron have longer losing skids than South Florida's eight.
Meanwhile, Tulsa (3-7, 1-5) has also lost three straight games (all by 11 or more points) and has just one win in its last seven contests.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 12 game between USF and Tulsa (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
USF vs. Tulsa Game Info
Date: Friday,
Nov. 18, 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK
Weather: 35 degrees, 3% chance of
precipitation, 9-mph N wind
USF vs. Tulsa Odds
USF vs. Tulsa Odds Analysis
The opening line had Tulsa as a 12-point favorite. It grew to 14 points but has since come back down to the opening number. Roughly 57% of the tickets are backing the Golden Hurricane while 57% of the cash is on the Bulls.
Despite the spread widening, the consensus Over/Under line has dropped from 60.5 at opening to 58 on the morning of gameday. That's even with 57% of the tickets accounting for 53% of the handle on the Over.
USF vs. Tulsa Picks
USF vs. Tulsa ATS Pick
Tulsa -12.5 (-110) ★★★
The road team has won four of the previous five meetings between these programs, and the road underdog Bulls face a Golden Hurricanes team that has not covered the spread in any of their last six games.
However, while the Bulls were competitive against then-ranked Florida and Cincinnati teams with a healthy Gerry Bohanon at quarterback, they hit rock bottom two weeks ago in a 26-point loss to Temple. That resulted in head coach Jeff Scott (4-26 straight-up in his first 30 games) and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop being fired.
The Bulls narrowly missed a cover due to a failed late 2-point conversion last week against SMU in interim head coach Daniel Da Prato's first game at the helm. However, backup quarterback Katravis Marsh left the game in the fourth quarter after taking a hard hit on a running play.
Considering Da Prato was taken to a local hospital for further evaluation, we expect third-string Byrum Brown to be under center this week. Brown has attempted just five passes in his career, so an already-struggling Bulls offense should look even more dormant this week.
USF vs. Tulsa O/U Pick
Under 59 (-110) ★★★
South Florida entered last week allowing 6.3 yards per carry (130th among FBS teams) and 9.2 yards per pass attempt (128th). It also ranks outside the top 100 in tackling and coverage, per PFF. However, Tulsa is struggling with quarterback issues of its own, as Davis Brin was taken out of last week's game after going 5-for-13 passing. Brin was considered "day-to-day" with a shoulder injury leading up to the game, and his exit likely was due to lingering issues from the injury.
In his place, backup Braylon Braxton did not look sharp, completing just 50% of his passes for an average of 5.3 yards per attempt. He finished with a 31.6 QBR, and if he is the primary quarterback under center this week instead of Brin, the Golden Hurricanes' offensive ceiling will be much lower.
USF vs. Tulsa Prop Pick
Tulsa first half -7 (-110) ★★
Tulsa had a rough scheduling scenario last week, as its game against Memphis was its second in five days and came on the heels of a big home game against a ranked Tulane team. Thus, the Golden Hurricanes should benefit from more rest this week.
Even if Braxton is under center, Tulsa entered last week ranked 12th in rushing success rate and 34th in EPA per rush. It should use that advantage early to exploit a Bulls run defense that was just gashed for 6.7 yards per carry against SMU and is one of the worst in the country.
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USF-Tulsa picks made 11/16/2022 at 5:54 a.m. ET
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