SMU vs. Louisville Prediction: Week 3 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
The ACC has an exciting top-25 matchup in store for us in Week 3, as I hone in on this game with my SMU vs. Louisville prediction. No. 16 SMU and No. 23 Louisville are each coming off a lopsided win over FCS opponents. The Mustangs held off a late charge from Florida State in Week 1, while the Cardinals came up just short of a Week 1 upset against No. 8 Ole Miss.
Louisville is laying between -1.5 and -2.5, depending on your preferred sportsbook, leading up to Saturday's opening kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2) from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏈 SMU vs. Louisville picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 3 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
| Southern Methodist +2.5 (-120 via FanDuel) | 2.40 units |
| Under 59.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1.10 units |
Total wagered: 3.50 units | Max profit: +3.00 units
💰 SMU vs. Louisville prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
SMU +2.5(-120 via FanDuel)
I'm willing to put more stock into SMU QB Kevin Jennings than Louisville's transfer QB, Lincoln Kienholz. While the latter had a strong finish against Ole Miss, Jennings has been picking apart defenses and has College Football Playoff experience under his belt.
Jennings has an impressive 76.9 percent completion rate through 2 starts, tossing for over 750 yards and 8 touchdowns. He carries plenty of dual-threat ability, averaging 4.8 YPC when tasked this season.
Louisville's defense held up against Ole Miss' rushing attack, although the secondary was gashed, giving up over 330 yards and 3 touchdowns, all of which came on explosive downfield passes. Jennings has more than enough talent to exploit this weakness on the Cardinals' defense.
SMU already beat a Power 4 opponent on the road. Louisville may have a better head coach in Jeff Brohm than Mike Norvell at Florida State, but the Mustangs' defense should hold up against Kienholz's passing attack.
📡 SBR Edge: Horse Power
SMU has beaten Louisville outright in 2 straight seasons, outscoring the Cardinals 72-33.
Jennings' passing prowess takes down Louisville
We've already analyzed Jennings as a passer. He appears to be making significant strides since taking over this offense in 2024, carrying a 4-1 TD/INT ratio into Saturday's game. Louisville struggled to contain explosive passes against Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, and Jennings certainly has some big-arm throws in his arsenal.
Louisville has indeed played a tougher opponent than SMU. However, they also don't have the same continuity as Jennings does with head coach Rhett Lashlee. Factor in Jennings throwing for at least 330 yards in both starts this year, including 430 against the Seminoles on the road in prime-time, with 8 total touchdowns, and it feels like his talent will be too much for Louisville to contain in this matchup.
Score prediction: SMU 31, Louisville 27
📊 SMU vs. Louisville odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 3 matchup.
SMU vs. Louisville opening odds
• Moneyline: SMU +105 | Louisville -126
• Spread: SMU +1.5 (-108) | Louisville -1.5 (-112)
• Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-115) | Under 56.5 (-105)
📺 How to watch SMU vs. Louisville: Week 3
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (Louisville, Ky.)
- TV: ESPN2
Related Articles
