Tonight's San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction, Picks & Odds
The 6-1 Boise State Broncos are the minus-money Mountain West Championship odds favorites entering tonight's action against the 3-4 San Diego State Aztecs.
The Broncos are 24 or 24.5-point favorites at our best college football betting sites, with the line increasing slightly from -23.5 on Oct. 31. Friday's game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho (FS1).
Our San Diego State vs. Boise State prediction focuses on whether the Aztecs' subpar run defense can slow down Heisman Trophy odds hopeful Ashton Jeanty, who is averaging 196.6 rushing yards per game.
The Aztecs won two of their last three, and three of their previous four were decided by three or fewer points. Their ability to keep things close should serve them well against the Broncos, and we like their chances of covering.
The below picks are part of our college football Week 10 predictions.
Best San Diego State vs. Boise State picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: San Diego State +23.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Boise State ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Ashton Jeanty Over 181.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
San Diego State vs. Boise State against the spread prediction: Week 10
San Diego State to cover the spread: +23.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
San Diego State vs. Boise State opening odds:
- San Diego State: +23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Boise State: -23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Broncos’ pass defense keeps Aztecs close
Jeanty should run wild in this game, something I will discuss more thoroughly in a bit. However, even with him having another massive performance, the Broncos aren’t going to win this game by more than three touchdowns. The main reason is their pass defense.
The Broncos are allowing 284.5 passing yards per game. That ranks 125th in the nation. While the Aztecs’ passing attack is far from great, quarterback Danny O’Neil has thrown for at least 224 yards in three of his last four games.
From a scoring perspective, the disparity is clear. The Broncos average 42.3 points per game, while the Aztecs average just 18.5. However, the Broncos allow 27.8 points per game.
The Aztecs don’t have much chance of winning this game, but this spread is too large. Sixty-two percent of bettors are backing the Broncos, and yet, the spread has either stayed put or dropped to 23 at our best sports betting sites.
Oddsmakers seem to know something the public doesn’t, which makes this feel like a prime-time trap.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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San Diego State vs. Boise State best bet
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Ashton Jeanty Over 181.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jeanty ran for only 128 yards last week, his second-lowest total of the season, and because of that, this number is lower than it should be. It’s crazy to say that 181.5 is too low, but Jeanty has rushed for at least 182 yards in five of his seven games this season.
The Aztecs are allowing 175.7 rushing yards per game. That ranks 92nd in the country. There is no reason to expect them to be able to stop Jeanty, and with how he has performed this season, it’s safe to assume he’ll rush for at least six yards more than the average backfield.
The total is set at either 181.5 or 182.5 at each of our best sports betting apps. Right now, the best price for Over 182.5 is -114.
Those odds are almost the same as the -115 for Over 181.5, so play it safe with the one-yard buffer, even though Jeanty may go over 200 for the fourth time this season.
Our Shane Jackson also believes in Jeanty too as part of his college football Week 10 player prop picks.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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San Diego State vs. Boise State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
San Diego State vs. Boise State game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 1
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 54 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph SE
- Favorite: Boise State -23 (-110 via DraftKings)
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