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North Carolina vs. West Virginia Prediction, Pick & Odds: Duke's Mayo Bowl 2023

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: December 27, 2023 4:09 PM EST • 3 min 44 sec read.

Garrett Greene of the West Virginia Mountaineers is featured in our preview of the 2023 Duke's Mayo Bowl.
Garrett Greene #6 of the West Virginia Mountaineers passes down field against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Waco, Texas. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images via AFP.

The West Virginia Mountaineers square off with the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Duke's Mayo Bowl on Wednesday afternoon, with the former holding as a solid favorite in the best college football odds. The weather at Bank of America Stadium will be ideal but the state of the Tar Heels' roster will not, and we break it down in our North Carolina vs. West Virginia prediction for the 2023 Duke's Mayo Bowl.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) had a promising start to their season but experienced two straight losses and a slew of anticipated opt-outs before bowl season began. Even so, they still secured an invitation to the 2023 Duke's Mayo Bowl to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) as part of a busy four-game slate of college football games on Wednesday.

The Tar Heels may enjoy somewhat of a home-field advantage in nearby Charlotte, although it remains uncertain which version of the team we'll see after a deflating end to the season. Conversely, the Mountaineers finished 2023 on a roll and should essentially be at full strength ahead of this matchup.

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best North Carolina vs. West Virginia prediction and our college football picks for Wednesday's Duke's Mayo Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

North Carolina vs. West Virginia prediction: Duke's Mayo Bowl

West Virginia -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This would be a far more compelling matchup if both teams were at full strength. Alas, as is tradition during bowl season, one of these teams has been gutted by transfers and opt-outs - and the result is one of my few five-star plays of this entire bowl season.

North Carolina QB Drake Maye, the catalyst for this offense and a likely top-two pick in April's NFL Draft, won't suit up on Wednesday. Neither will star wideout Tez Walker (699 yards) or linebacker Cedric Gray (121 tackles), both of whom earned All-ACC honors this season.

Without those three (among others), it's an open question as to what we'll see from a team that was already losing steam down the stretch. After a 6-0 start, the Tar Heels lost two head-scratchers in October and dropped their final two games of the year - capped by a 39-20 loss to NC State that drew criticism for the team's lack of effort and preparation.

Conversely, the Mountaineers won four of their final five games to close the year, and they'll be at mostly full strength for Wednesday's tilt. That should spell some serious mismatches against UNC's leaky front.

West Virginia finished the regular season as the nation's third-most prolific rushing offense (234.3 YPG), boasting three players with 700-plus rushing yards in QB Garrett Greene (708) as well as running backs CJ Donaldson (798) and Jahiem White (792).

Those three should have a field day against North Carolina, which ranked 86th in rushing yards allowed (163.1 YPG) and 95th in total defense (405.4 YPG) even before losing its leading tackler in Gray. The Tar Heels could also struggle to contain speedster Devin Carter (501 receiving yards), a former NC State transfer who torched UNC for 130 yards and a score in his final game with the Wolfpack in 2022.

It's no surprise that the betting market has pounced on West Virginia, which opened as a 3.5-point favorite before a three-point shift in its favor. That movement hasn't gone far enough against a UNC team that has lost six of its last seven bowl games and already quit on its season weeks ago.

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North Carolina vs. West Virginia best odds

BetMGM (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
WVU -6.5WVU -6.5WVU -6.5WVU -6.5WVU -6.5
-112-115-110-110-110

After West Virginia opened at -3.5, the market is in full consensus with a -6.5 spread across our best sports betting sites. That said, three of our top sportsbooks are dealing the Mountaineers with standard -110 vig, compared to the worse price at market leaders DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our preference among the three remaining is BetMGM, though that's entirely a personal one. I recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which of those three books is offering the best bonus.

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North Carolina vs. West Virginia odds

North Carolina vs. West Virginia odds analysis

West Virginia opened as a 3.5-point favorite to win the 2023 Duke's Mayo Bowl, which came before North Carolina QB Drake Maye officially opted out of his team's bowl game. With Maye and others sitting out, this line has moved all the way to -6.5, where it sits across our best sports betting apps.

The total opened at 55.5 and hasn't moved much, with most of our best sportsbooks hanging a total of 54 ahead of this one. If you like the Under, you can still grab a rogue 55 at Caesars, though UNC's shaky defense makes that a tricky play.

Duke's Mayo Bowl game info

  • When: Wednesday, Dec. 27 at 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 9-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation

North Carolina-West Virginia prediction made Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.