Citrus Bowl Picks: Kentucky vs. Iowa College Football Picks

It’s a top-25 matchup between the Big Ten and SEC in the Citrus Bowl from Orlando on New Year’s Day as Iowa takes on Kentucky. We break down the Citrus Bowl with our Kentucky-Iowa college football picks.

Don’t expect a lot of scoring Saturday in the Citrus Bowl between No. 15 Iowa and No. 22 Kentucky. Both are good defensive teams that have had some trouble on offense at times. I’d expect a big fan advantage for the Hawkeyes as all those Midwesterners will want to escape that harsh Iowa winter for a nice holiday weekend in central Florida. 

It’s the second time in this game for both programs. Iowa beat LSU in 2005 and Kentucky beat Penn State in 2019. It’s the first-ever meeting between these schools.

Here are my college football picks and predictions for the Citrus Bowl matchup between Kentucky and Iowa (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Kentucky vs. Iowa Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FLWeather: 86 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 12 mph winds

Kentucky vs. Iowa Odds Analysis

The Hawkeyes opened as 1.5-point favorites but are now 3-point underdogs in large part because of one major opt-out that we will explain below. As a result, 95% of the money and 72% of the bets have come in on Kentucky.

The total has dropped from an open of 45 to 44 points, probably for the same reason the spread has changed. It’s the lowest total of the five New Year’s Day games. The public and sharps are aligned again with 63% of the money and 52 of tickets on the Over.

Kentucky Betting Preview

Record: 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 O/UKey Players: QB Will Levis, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WR Wan’Dale Robinson, OT Darian Kinnard, DE Josh Paschal, LB J.J. WeaverNotable trend: Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. the Big Ten.Bowl History: 11-9 all-time record; 2020: Upset NC State 23-21 in the Gator Bowl.

Head coach Mark Stoops has really worked wonders at this basketball-first school in getting the Wildcats to nine wins, but in reality, beat everyone they were supposed to other than maybe Florida (which ended up being hugely overrated). 

UK caught a pretty nice break in terms of which schools it faced from the SEC West, avoiding the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Stoops was mentioned for a few major head coaching openings but stayed put and got an extension. He is the first Kentucky coach to lead the team to six consecutive bowl appearances. The Cats have won their last three bowl games. 

QB Will Levis transferred in from Penn State and had a fine season, completing 66.5% of his passes for 2,593 yards, 23 TDs and 12 picks. He also rushed for 387 yards and nine scores. Levis already has announced he will return to UK next year and should be one of the SEC’s better quarterbacks. 

Levis will be missing two top receivers as super senior Josh Ali and senior Isaiah Epps were involved in a car accident earlier this month that will prevent them from playing in the bowl matchup.

Iowa Betting Preview

Record: 10-3 SU,7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/UKey Players: QB Spencer Petras, RB Tyler Goodson, C Tyler Linderbaum, TE Sam LaPorta, LB Jack Campbell, DB Matt Hankins, DB Riley Moss. Notable Trend: The Hawkeyes are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.Bowl History: 17-15-1 all-time record; 2020: Didn’t play.

Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is one bowl win shy of tying former Penn State legend Joe Paterno (10) for most bowl wins as a member of the Big Ten. Ferentz has a 9-8 bowl record and has led Iowa to three straight bowl wins, tying the longest such streak in program history.

The Big Ten is chock-full of trophy games, and Iowa thrives in those. The Hawkeyes are 3-2 in trophy games this season and 25-6 in their last 31, which includes conference title games and bowls.

Iowa’s best player is Linderbaum, a first-team All-American who won the Rimington Trophy, which is awarded to the nation’s top center. He helps open holes for Goodson but that won’t be an option for this game. More on that below. Starting cornerback Matt Hankins will miss the Citrus Bowl due to injury.

Kentucky vs. Iowa Picks

Kentucky (-145) ???Under 44 (-110) ???Kentucky -0.5 (+120) first quarter ???Iowa Under 20.5 (-120) ??First team to score: Kentucky (-130) ??

SEE ALSO: All College Football Bowl Odds, Lines, and Picks

Kentucky vs. Iowa Predictions

Kentucky (-145)

If you can find the Cats at -2.5, that might be fine but I’m not giving Iowa 3 points in what figures to be a very low-scoring game so we’ll do the moneyline. I believe the Hawkeyes might be a bit flat after being completely whacked by Michigan in a 42-3 loss in the Big Ten title game. Playing in a New Year’s Day game is a major accomplishment for Kentucky, but the Hawkeyes surely were looking ahead to a possible Rose Bowl trip.

In addition, Goodson opted out of this game to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft. The junior from Georgia rushed 256 times for 1,151 yards and six scores, and he added 247 yards receiving with a TD. Goodson has 2,551 career rushing yards, 10th all-time in program history. Big loss.

Redshirt freshman Gavin Williams likely will start in his place. Williams had only 49 carries this year. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky's Levis, Rodriguez, and Robinson became just the second trio in school history to reach 2,000 yards passing, 1,000 rushing, and 1,000 receiving in the same season.   

Both Kentucky and Iowa have won 15 straight non-conference games, tied for the longest active streak in the country. Who would have guessed?

Under 44 (-110)

Frankly, my only major concern with this total going Over is that Iowa has turned 30 turnovers into 92 points in 2021. The Hawkeyes’ defense has scored 28 points and Iowa’s special teams have two touchdowns (one kickoff return, one blocked punt return). Iowa defensive back Dane Belton leads the Big Ten and is tied for second in the nation with five interceptions.

The Cats will certainly miss both Ali and Epps, as Ali ranks second on the team with 41 catches and 601 receiving yards. Epps also spent much of the season as a starter but was limited by an injury down the stretch.

Kentucky -0.5 (+120) first quarter

I don’t really know why UK is an underdog at +120 at just minus-0.5 for the first-quarter number. Part of my thinking here is what I mentioned above in that I expect Iowa is going to be flat and obviously is going to greatly miss Goodson. He was the focal point of the offense.

Take the Wildcats to win the first quarter at plus money with our Kentucky-Iowa Citrus Bowl picks.

Iowa Under 20.5 (-120)

UK is 10th in the FBS in fourth-down defense (38.7%), 36th in tackles for loss (6.4 per game), and 26th in total defense (337.2). It ranks 17th nationally in rushing defense (117.9 yards allowed per game).

Hawkeyes QB Petras was so bad late in the season (and a bit banged up) that he was benched, but he will start here. Petras was an ugly 9-for-22 for 137 yards in the Big Ten title loss before being pulled. Backup Alex Padilla hasn’t been any better, though.

Kentucky to score first (-130)

Even with Goodson, Iowa has trailed after one quarter in three straight games. The UK offense scored a touchdown on its opening possession seven times through 12 games. 

Rodriguez has 1,272 rushing yards this season, the seventh-most in school history. Robinson set a school record with 94 receptions. Robinson also has 1,164 receiving yards, for the sixth 1,000-yard receiving season in school history. The Cats simply have way more offensive weapons than Iowa.

Back Kentucky to score first to cap our Kentucky-Iowa Citrus Bowl picks.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Kentucky-Iowa Citrus Bowl picks made on 12/27/2021 at 7:12 p.m. ET.