Georgia vs. Kentucky Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Can Wildcats Pose a Challenge?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 18, 2022 12:00 PM EST • 2 min 38 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Stetson Bennett of the Georgia Bulldogs throws a pass against the Tennessee Volunteers at Sanford Stadium on Nov. 05, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images via AFP.

Georgia already clinched the SEC East division title and looks to further cement itself as college football's best team when visiting Kentucky. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Georgia-Kentucky college football picks.

Want to know how dominant Georgia (10-0, 7-0) is? Oddsmakers already pegged the Bulldogs as -16 point favorites in the SEC Championship Game line matchup between Georgia and LSU .

Meanwhile, Kentucky (6-4, 3-4) is still ranked in the AP Poll after losing to Vanderbilt, an historic loss that snapped the Commodores' 26-game SEC losing streak. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops fell to 0-4 ATS as a 14+ point favorite with all those non-covers against Vandy.

Here are our top Georgia vs. Kentucky picks for Week 12 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 12.

Georgia vs. Kentucky Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
Weather: 37 degrees, 3% chance of precipitation, 12-mph SW wind

Georgia vs. Kentucky Odds

Georgia vs. Kentucky Odds Analysis

Georgia has held steady as a 22.5-point road favorite. This, even with 86% of the tickets and 71% of the handle backing the defending national champions.

The Over/Under has seem some more movement. The consensus opening line of 50 has dropped to 48.5 as of Friday morning. Bettors are strongly aligned on the Under with 63% of the tickets and 91% of the handle.

Georgia vs. Kentucky Picks

Georgia vs. Kentucky ATS Pick

Kentucky +22.5 (-110) ★

Kentucky is not likely to upset the NCAAF's best team, so deciding if the Wildcats cover this big point spread comes down to whether last week's loss to Vanderbilt was a case of them looking ahead to this marquee matchup or not.

Going back a week further against Missouri, Kentucky was lucky enough to escape Columbia with a win. The Wildcats capitalized on two Tigers' turnovers, numerous special teams blunders, and that Missouri was 1-for-4 on fourth down. However, Georgia's resume is so impressive that it doesn't drop in the CFP standings with a close victory, so the Bulldogs may focus more on getting out of these last two regular season games healthy.

The Wildcats have struggled to run the ball all season, but that weakness is not as enhanced against a Georgia defense everyone struggles to run on. Kentucky's best chance to cover is by playing solid D against a Bulldogs' O-line that entered Week 11 ranked just 109th in explosive plays.

Georgia vs. Kentucky O/U Pick

Under 49 (-110) ★★★★

Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett plays his best against the best competition. Entering the high-profile showdown with Tennessee two weeks ago, Bennett averaged an 83.6 total QBR against AP top 25 teams with a 21-6 TD-INT ratio. He backed that up with a clean three total touchdown performance and no turnovers against the Volunteers, as head coach Kirby Smart didn't ask him to do much with how his defense dominated.

That's how we see this game playing out, as Kentucky can't put up points in bunches, which should make the Dogs complacent to grind out drives. Georgia has played that way most of the season, and ranked second in Offensive Success Rate despite its lack of explosive plays.

The Under cashed in five of the previous seven meetings between these teams, and we like another defensive struggle to ensue.

Georgia vs. Kentucky Prop Pick

First half Under 26.5 (-105) ★★

Kentucky's offense is way behind its defense, as it ranks 84th in Offensive SP+ but ninth defensively. Wildcats quarterback Will Levis hasn't thrown more than 109 yards or finished with a QBR higher than 15.5 in two of the previous three matchups, which will be required to move the ball against a stout Bulldogs front.

The Under cashed in Kentucky's last seven games against teams with a winning record and is 10-1 in its previous 11 overall. Expect those trends to continue, especially after a sluggish first 30 minutes.

Where to Bet on Georgia vs. Kentucky Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Georgia-Kentucky picks made 11/16/2022 at 5:56 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.