College Football Against the Spread Picks for Week 14: Finding Value in Conference Championship Games

Ten conference championship games between Friday and Saturday will finalize our bowl schedule and help determine which four teams are selected for the College Football Playoff. Read on for our best ATS bets for Week 14's college football action.

This year, the CFP committee has some relatively straightforward decisions, as Georgia, Michigan, and TCU are seemingly all safe for inclusion, even with losses in their conference championships. But will those three teams' lack of need to make one final statement impact how the games are played?

Below, we offer our top ATS bets for Week 14 in college football (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top Against the Spread Bets for Week 14

• USC -2.5 vs. Utah (-105 via Caesars)
• Kansas State +2.5 vs. TCU (-110 via BetMGM)
• LSU +17.5 vs. Georgia (-105 via FanDuel)

Week 14 Against the Spread Predictions

USC -2.5 (-105) ★★★★

USC gets a chance to avenge its only loss of the season, which came on a successful Utah 2-point conversion with 48 seconds left, as the Utes beat the Trojans in Salt Lake City 43-42. 

Playing on a neutral field in Las Vegas is much different than going into a hostile road environment. But with how the Trojans have looked over the last month and a half, it may not matter where this game is played. Quarterback Caleb Williams has led USC's offense to 38-plus points in each of its last six games, but he has added a much more fearful running component to his arsenal that was not heavily relied upon earlier in the season. 

Williams has rushed for seven touchdowns in his last four games after scoring just three rushing touchdowns through the first eight. Part of that was out of necessity after losing lead rusher Travis Dye to a season-ending injury. Nonetheless, the Utes are facing a much different offense this time than the one that asked Williams to run just eight times (for 57 yards) in their first meeting. As a result of having to worry about Williams' legs, the Trojans ran for 204 yards (and 5.2 yards per carry) against a Fighting Irish defense that had held four of its previous six opponents under 100 yards rushing.

Not only does Caesars allow us to back USC at less than a field goal, but it is also charging minimal juice, which gives us better value on two fronts. 

Kansas State +2.5 (-110) ★★★★

There is something fishy about this line, considering TCU is coming off its most dominant performance of the season, while Kansas State needed a win in the final game to even earn this spot in the Big 12 Championship.

Iowa State entered last week ranked first in the Big 12 in scoring defense and is still the only team in the conference to allow fewer than 357 yards per game (285.6 YPG allowed). However, the Horned Frogs torched the Cyclones for 62 points and 377 yards. That begs the question of why they are laying less than a field goal.

Kansas State squandered an 11-point halftime lead against TCU in backup quarterback Will Howard's first start. He has much more confidence now with five games under his belt, and in the three games where he attempted at least 27 passes, he has finished with at least an 89.4 QBR and has nine TD passes against one interception. Thus, Howard's arm talent has made this offense more explosive than just relying on Deuce Vaughn's legs, and his maturity and game experience will make the difference in this game.

LSU +17.5 (-105) ★★★

FanDuel has increased this number from a lookahead line of 16.5 to 18.5 in the wake of LSU's letdown at Texas A&M, but that number now seems too inflated against a Georgia team that may already have its mind set on the playoffs.

Yes, Georgia is the first team with consecutive 12-0 starts since 2018 and is about to be ranked No. 1 in the CFP rankings for the 11th week (second only to Alabama). Meanwhile, Stetson Bennett entered last week with an 85.6 total QBR over the previous two seasons (fourth in FBS). However, the fear is that Bennett has not been asked to do much recently (25 or fewer pass attempts in three of the last four games), yet he has still thrown three interceptions in that span. 

Coach Brian Kelly lost two games to Georgia by a total of seven points (2017, 2019) in his time at Notre Dame but now has SEC-level talent and a much more explosive quarterback with which to go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs.

FanDuel is the perfect place to shop for LSU backers, as it is the only sportsbook offering +17.5 compared to +17 along with -105 juice. 

Where to Bet on College Football ATS Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

College football Top ATS bets made 11/28/2022 at 7:25 a.m. ET.