College Football Futures: Is Efficient QB Play Key to Heisman Success?

Is a quarterback the right pick to win the Heisman in 2022? Or will a receiver rise? Let's assess the 2022 Heisman Trophy market.

We’re still in the dog days of summer, but fall is right around the corner. As we get ready to turn our calendars to August, it’s time to start thinking about the college football season.

Bryce Young won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 after a dominant campaign for Alabama, albeit not a championship-winning one. Quarterbacks like Young have captured the award eight of the last 10 seasons.

The last three non-quarterbacks to do it have all been skill-position players for Alabama. But the trends don’t mean everything, and the 2022 winner could be surprising.

Here are my top picks for the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook).

2022 Heisman Trophy Odds

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Heisman Trophy Picks

CJ Stroud (+275 via PointsBet) ?? Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+5000 via FanDuel) ????Hendon Hooker (+6000 via FanDuel) ??

Who Will Win the 2022 Heisman Trophy?

CJ Stroud (+275)

Stroud entered the offseason behind Bryce Young on Heisman oddsboards, but he's since captured the top spot in the market. He's been given odds between +200 and +275, leading to a slight edge over Young at +350. No player has won back-to-back Heisman trophies since Archie Griffin did it in the 1970s, so I’m siding with the market movement and taking Stroud over Young.

The Ohio State quarterback threw for 4,435 yards and 44 scores while completing 71.8% of his pass attempts in 2021. His passing efficiency grade of 186.6 ranked second in the NCAA, behind only Grayson McCall, and 14th all time. He outperformed the Heisman-winning seasons of Jameis Winston (2013) and Marcus Mariota (2014) in the metric.

However, Stroud must adjust to life without Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. are still available to target. We’ve also already seen Stroud look good without Wilson and Olave while tossing for 563 yards and six touchdowns and completing 80% of his throws during the 2022 Rose Bowl.

Still, it's difficult to make this more than a two-star play, simply because it's so hard to win the Heisman Trophy. Three of the last four preseason favorites failed to earn the honor. Even a short-term injury to Stroud or one of his receivers could derail this bet, so think carefully about playing a Heisman line with odds this short.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+5000)

Targeting Smith-Njigba gives you exposure to Ohio State's explosive offense in exchange for a much better return. While only one wide receiver has won the Heisman in the last 20 years, football’s transition to a pass-focused game makes effective wideouts much more valuable.

Smith-Njigba will benefit from a Heisman-caliber quarterback being under center, along with Olave and Wilson departing. Those two caught 135 balls in 2021, and their targets will now shift elsewhere. Smith-Njigba already led the team in receptions (95) and receiving yards (1,606), so the extra volume will give him a chance to beat DeVonta Smith’s 117-catch, 1,856-yard Heisman-winning campaign.

He also already owns the Big Ten record for the most single-season receiving yards. Smith-Njigba may need to challenge the NCAA’s overall record in that category to warrant Heisman consideration. But that's well within his range of outcomes for 2022.

I’m all over Ohio State this season in other markets. Adding a partial-unit long shot on Smith-Njigba to win the Heisman Trophy feels like a great value at +5000.

Hendon Hooker (+6000)

Although Alabama has dominated the SEC during the Nick Saban era, other conference schools have been producing Heisman winners during that span. That includes Joe Burrow (2019), Johnny Manziel (2012), and Cam Newton (2010).

It’ll take a lot for the Volunteers to get their first-ever Heisman Trophy winner. Peyton Manning couldn’t do it, instead finishing second in Heisman voting in 1997 and earning votes in 1996 and 1995. But Hooker might just be able to pull it off.

Hooker recorded the third-best passing efficiency grade at 181.4 in 2021. He threw for 2,945 yards and 31 touchdowns while completing 68% of his pass attempts. The signal-caller also threw only one pick while adding another 600 yards and five scores on the ground.

Like Stroud, Hooker lost some of his best receivers, with Velus Jones Jr. and JaVonta Payton both leaving for the NFL. Fortunately, he’ll get Cedric Tillman back after an impressive 1,081-yard, 12-touchdown performance in 2021, and Jalin Hyatt will replace Jones in the slot.

Hooker will need to outperform his already impressive 2021 campaign to win the Heisman. But his resume makes him one of the higher-value dark horses available.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIEI_k4Qmbk

Where to Bet on 2022 Heisman Trophy Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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2022 Heisman Trophy picks made 7/25/2022 at 1:47 p.m. ET.