Bowling Green vs. Ohio Picks, Predictions College Football Week 13: Upset Watch in MAC East Battle?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 22, 2022 10:27 AM EST • 2 min 42 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Matt McDonald of the Bowling Green Falcons passes against the UCLA Bruins. Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images via AFP.

The winner of Tuesday's game between the Bowling Green Falcons and Ohio Bobcats will move into top spot in the MAC East Division. Check out our top Bowling Green-Ohio college football picks and predictions.

The scenario for the Ohio Bobcats (8-3, 6-1) is simple: win, and advance to play Toledo in the MAC Championship Game. However, if Bowling Green (6-5, 5-2) wins, it would need Buffalo to lose one of its two remaining games to claim its spot in the conference championship game.

Bowling Green snapped a five-game losing streak in this rivalry with a 21-10 victory last season.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 13 game between Bowling Green and Ohio (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Ball State vs. Miami (OH) picks for Tuesday and all of our top college football picks for Week 13.

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Nov. 22, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Location: Peden Stadium, Athens, OH
Weather: 51 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 6-mph SSW wind

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Odds

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Odds Analysis

Ohio opened as a consensus 7.5-point favorite and is as low as -7 at DraftKings Sportsbook but as high as -8.5 at FanDuel.

The total has a similar variance, with a low of 55.5 points to a high of 56.5.

Bettors are aligned on the Bobcats with 81% of the bets accounting for 82% of the handle. They're split on the Over/Under, however, with 71% of the tickets on the Over but 55% of the cash on the Under.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Picks

Bowling Green vs. Ohio ATS Pick

Bowling Green +8.5 (-115) ★★★★

Just six teams in the country have a longer winning streak than the Bobcats' six-game roll. Five of Ohio's wins in that span have come by at least 14 points, and it has cemented itself as the class of the conference over the last month and a half. In addition to winning six straight (with three outright upsets mixed in), Ohio has covered all seven MAC games.

However, given the injury status of Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke, we are fading all of those trends and siding with the underdogs.

Rourke left last week's game against Ball State with a knee injury, and his chances of playing in this finale aren't great. Rourke would be a significant loss for Ohio, as backup quarterback CJ Harris has thrown just 13 passes in his career.

With FanDuel offering as much as 1.5 more points worth of value, we have an easy decision to make our wagers there.

Bowling Green vs. Ohio O/U Pick

Under 56.5 (-110) ★★

Ohio is vulnerable defensively, as it allows 30.7 points per game, the fourth-worst in the conference. And though Bowling Green is one of the few teams worse at 32.8 points, we expect Rourke's potential absence to have both teams playing more conservatively, especially with how much is at stake.

The Bobcats' offense entered last week ranked 17th in pass success, but that strength is mitigated if Rourke is not under center. Without him, they own a pedestrian offense that ranked 107th in rush success and 110th in pass blocking.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green entered as the 100th-best offense in the country, per SP+, and also outside the top 100 in overall offensive success rate.

The Falcons' defense has shown an ability to live in opponents' backfields all season, ranking above average (48th entering last week) in havoc caused.

The Under has cashed in four of the previous five meetings in Ohio between these teams, and we expect another lower-scoring battle this week.

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Prop Pick

Bowling Green first-half spread (Off) ★★★

Ohio will have to rely on a running game that has averaged 138.2 yards if Rourke can't play, but that is the strength of the Falcons' defense.

Bowling Green entered last week ranked 28th in rush success and 48th in havoc created. In addition, the Falcons employ a "bend but don't break" philosophy when defending the pass, as they entered last week ranked 21st in passing explosiveness.

All of that should have Bowling Green stay competitive in the first half and well on its way to its eighth cover in the last 11 trips to Ohio.

Where to Bet on Bowling Green-Ohio Picks

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Bowling Green-Ohio picks made 11/21/2022 at 6:13 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.