Baylor vs. Texas, Predictions College Football Week 13: Big 12 Title Hopes on the Line for Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns need a win over the Baylor Bears on Friday to keep their hopes alive for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance. We're breaking down the betting angles with our top Baylor-Texas college football picks and predictions.
Texas (7-4, 5-3) needs a win and a loss by Kansas State to Kansas to clinch a spot in next week's conference championship game. In such a scenario, both the Longhorns and Wildcats would have identical 6-3 conference records, but Texas has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas State by virtue of its 34-27 road win in Manhattan on November 5.
Baylor (6-5, 4-4) is coming off consecutive home losses to Kansas State and TCU, the two-best teams in the Big 12, following a three-game winning streak. The Bears came the closest to ending the Horned Frogs' undefeated season, but a TCU field goal as time expired allowed it to walk out of Waco with a dramatic 29-28 victory. The loss dropped Baylor to 1-23 straight up as an unranked team against an AP top-five opponent.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 13 game between Baylor and Texas (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 13!
Baylor vs. Texas Game Info
Date: Friday, Nov. 25, noon ET
TV: ESPN
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Weather: 60 degrees, 52% chance of precipitation, 11-mph NW wind
Baylor vs. Texas Odds
Baylor vs. Texas Odds Analysis
The consensus opening spread has Texas favored by 7.5 points but that line has grown to Texas -9 as of Friday morning. However, the Longhorns the 62% of the tickets backing the Longhorns account for a more modest 46% of the handle on the spread.
There's a similar split on the Over/Under. The opening line of 56.5 has dipped to 55 with 61% of the cash on the Under while 63% of the bets back the Over.
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Baylor vs. Texas Picks
Baylor vs. Texas ATS Pick
Texas -7.5 (-110) ★★
Since last season, head coach Dave Aranda's Baylor teams have been excellent at 5-1 ATS in games following a loss. However, back-to-back home losses, including a crushing last-second defeat on Senior Day, are difficult to overcome. Conversely, we expect a spirited Steve Sarkisian-coached Longhorns team to show up with much on the line.
Baylor figured to have a significant advantage on the ground last week over TCU, ranking 18th in expected rush points to the Horned Frogs' No. 70 ranking defensively in that category. However, the Bears couldn't pay off the 232 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry they averaged. Texas entered last week ranked 12th in rush success defense and graded in the top 50 in the country in tackling, per PFF. Thus, it has the foil to contact Baylor's explosive rushing attack.
While the days of being able to back Texas as a favorite on a line shorter than a touchdown (like you could have on last week's look-ahead line) are long gone, Longhorns backers would still be wise to head to FanDuel for their point spread bets, as it is the only sportsbook not currently at Texas -8.5.
Check out our Heisman Trophy odds and picks.
Baylor vs. Texas O/U Pick
Over 54.5 (-115) ★★★★
Baylor entered last week ranked in the top 25 in stuff rate and rushing success, as quarterback Blake Shapen's running ability is a perfect complement to running back Richard Reese's legs. The duo is a big reason why the Bears' 34 rushing touchdowns are third-most in FBS and lead the conference.
However, Texas should also have success offensively, as Baylor entered last week ranked 121st in defensive standard downs success rate. This suggests the Longhorns should be able to convert a good percentage of third downs, even those that are not short distances.
The -115 juice is worth it to make this wager via FanDuel, as most competing sportsbooks offer a total of 55.5 or 56.
Baylor vs. Texas Prop Pick
Texas first-half team total Over (OFF) ★★
Texas entered last week ranked eighth nationally in first-half points per game, then proceeded to put 31 points on Kansas in the first 30 minutes last week. Aranda's teams had succeeded against teams ranked in the College Football Playoff top-10, beating No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 5 Oklahoma State, and No. 8 Ole Miss as underdogs.
However, this year's team is not as talented as the one that won the Big 12 last year, and the Longhorns will take advantage of the Bears' deficiencies. As of Tuesday morning the implied total is 16 and we would play this wager up to 16.5.
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Baylor-Texas picks made 11/22/2022 at 6:14 a.m. ET.
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