Air Force vs. San Jose State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Are Spartans Live Underdogs?
Our best Air Force vs. San Jose State prediction has you covered for the final matchup on Friday’s busy college football schedule as we look for the best college football odds.
The Air Force Falcons are looking for their second straight win when they visit the San Jose State Spartans.
Air Force is one of two undefeated Mountain West teams, with all three wins coming by double digits, including last week’s conference opener against Utah State.
On the flip side, San Jose State is just 1-3 on the season, but two of those defeats came at the hands of ranked Pac-12 teams (USC and Oregon State).
To help with your college football best bets for Friday, here is our best Air Force vs. San Jose State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Air Force vs. San Jose State prediction: Week 4
San Jose State +3.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
San Jose State ended a three-game losing streak in this rivalry with a 17-6 home victory in 2020, and we expect it to defend the triple-option and be competitive again.
Air Force entered last week ranked 132nd nationally in average time elapsed between plays, so we will be enticed any time we can get points against a team that plays so methodically.
The Falcons' defense looked like a unit that ranked in the top 10 in success rate allowed, holding Utah State to just seven first-half points. And while Air Force raced out to a 29-0 lead just four minutes into the second quarter, we find it a little overvalued, considering Utah State was not built to stack up well against its triple-option scheme after entering ranked outside the top 65 in rush success rate allowed.
San Jose State rushing stats will be skewed after 4.7 and 5.6 yards per carry against USC and Oregon State, respectively. And while the Spartans allowed 6.4 yards per carry against Toledo, they dominated time of possession by nearly 10 minutes after forcing the Rockets into three turnovers.
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We are confident in the Spartans' offense keeping pace with Air Force in this game, as they carved the Trojans' defense up in Week 1 for 2.2 points per drive, 6.0 yards per play, and 5.0 yards per rush. An Air Force defense that has allowed just 10.3 points per game through three games has not seen a quarterback nearly as talented as San Jose State’s Chevan Cordeiro, who has a 6-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks eighth in passer rating in the conference despite playing a brutal early non-conference schedule.
This is a three-star play, as Air Force went 2-2 ATS as the road favorite last season, and San Jose State has covered three of four games this year. The Spartans also are coming off a season in which they had a plus-65 point differential, the team’s best in 10 seasons.
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Air Force vs. San Jose State best odds
FanDuel (-105)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| -108 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with the spread of +3.5, but what sets FanDuel apart (and, to some extent, DraftKings) is the cheaper -105 odds to back the underdogs. San Jose State has covered the spread in the last three meetings by an average of 9.7 points per game.
Air Force vs. San Jose State odds
Air Force vs. San Jose State odds analysis
BetMGM and FanDuel had the highest opening spreads of Air Force -4.5, while DraftKings and Caesars opened at -4 on Sunday afternoon. Caesars got as low as -3 on multiple occasions (Sunday night and again on Monday morning), but that number didn't last long before Air Force backers drove the number back up to -3.5. DraftKings and BetMGM also got to -3 briefly, while the line has been -3.5 or higher the last few days at FanDuel.
There is a slightly wider range among our best sports betting apps with regard to the total. FanDuel and BetRivers are on the low end at 46.5 (both are juiced to the Over at -115 and -113, respectively), while BetMGM is on the high end at 47.5. All other shops have settled on a total of 47. While there is a one-point difference in the totals, there has hardly been any fluctuation in the number at any shop since Sunday afternoon, despite the Under getting twice as many wagers (2/1 betting split).
FanDuel has the highest price for Air Force’s moneyline odds (-182), while Caesars is on the low end at -164.
Air Force vs. San Jose State game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 22 at 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 79 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 13 mph WNW
Air Force-San Jose State prediction made 9/19/2023 at 6:10 a.m. ET.
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