Trade Grades: Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres

The Washington Nationals were committed to trading right fielder Juan Soto after he recently turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract extension. That led to a short bidding process among interested teams and the Nationals completed a trade to send Soto and first baseman Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres in exchange for shortstop C.J. Abrams, first baseman Luke Voit, outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, as well as pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Jarlin Susana.

The Padres were priced at +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook Friday to win the World Series and that has since moved to +1100. On FanDuel Sportsbook, San Diego’s World Series odds moved from +1800 to +1000 after news of the Soto deal. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Padres went from +2200 on Friday to +1000 after the trade was reported.

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Here's how we grade each team in this massive trade:

San Diego Padres

Juan Soto is a 23-year-old outfielder who is already well on his way to Cooperstown, home of the Baseball Hall of Fame. His fifth major league season has not been quite as productive as previous years and yet he is still having a monster campaign, hitting 21 home runs and leading the majors with 94 walks while delivering a slash line of .246/.408/.485.

This is Soto’s age 23 season, and he has already accumulated a FanGraphs WAR of 21.4 for his career. The only active players with a higher WAR through their age 23 seasons are Mike Trout (38.5), Albert Pujols (22.2), and Bryce Harper (22.1). There is a decent chance that Soto could surpass Pujols and Harper this season, putting him second among active major leaguers in accumulated WAR through his age 23 season. He is a ridiculously talented hitter and considering his age, he is going to be an impact player for a long time.

It won’t come cheaply, as Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals, but the Padres would presumably have some idea what it would take to get Soto signed to a long-term contract extension and can now build a lineup around Soto, third baseman Manny Machado, and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Josh Bell, 29, is a power-hitting first baseman who will be a free agent at the season’s end. He hit a career-high 37 home runs in 2019 and has 14 home runs this season to go with a slash line of .301/.384/.493, so he will be a productive bat added to the San Diego lineup as well.

The Padres were aggressive to get this deal done but did not have to pay an exorbitant price considering that the main feature is getting one of the premier players in the game when he is just 23 years old. From San Diego’s perspective, this is a potentially franchise-changing deal and one that they would make ten times out of ten.

Trade Grade: A+

Washington Nationals

MacKenzie Gore is a 23-year-old left-handed starting pitcher who was the third overall pick in the 2017 Draft. He had stellar early results in the minors and was a Top 6 prospect in baseball (per Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus) going into the 2020 season. With COVID-19 wiping out the minor league season, Gore’s development stalled, and he had to work out some mechanical issues. Nevertheless, Gore reached the major leagues this season and in 16 appearances (13 starts), he has recorded a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, with 4.12 FIP and 9.3 K/9. His walk rate of 4.8 BB/9 is too high, but there have been some encouraging signs and now he will have ample opportunity to become a fixture in the Nationals rotation.

C.J. Abrams, 21, was the sixth pick in the 2019 Draft. In 30 games at Triple-A this season, he had seven home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a slash line of .314/.364/.507. With Fernando Tatis Jr. injured, Abrams has seen action in 46 games for the Padres this season and while he is not necessarily ready for prime time, he has a slash line of .232/.285/.320 for San Diego. He entered this season as a Top 10 prospect, according to Baseball America and MLB.com, so he should be Washington’s starting shortstop for many years.

Luke Voit is a 31-year-old designated hitter who can play some first base. He led the American League with 22 home runs in 56 games for the New York Yankees during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but he has not been as productive for the Padres this season, hitting 13 home runs with a slash line of .225/.317/.416.

Voit is making $5.45 million this season and is arbitration eligible for two more years. In the short term, he can take over for Josh Bell in the Nationals lineup, but Voit does not figure to be part of the long-term plan in Washington.

Robert Hassell III, 20, was the eighth pick in the 2020 Draft. The left-handed hitting and throwing center fielder is producing in High-A this season, with 10 home runs, 20 stolen bases (in 23 attempts), and a slash line of .299/.379/.467. He might be at least a year away but is a quality prospect who could have a long major league career.

James Wood is a 19-year-old outfielder who was a second-round pick in 2021. In 50 games at Single-A this season, he has 10 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a slash line of .337/.453/.601. That's very encouraging, but he is also a long way from the major leagues. Wood certainly has potential, but it should be a few years before he is ready to challenge for a big-league job.

Jarlin Susana is an 18-year-old starting pitcher who is already listed at 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds. He has 44 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings at Rookie ball, posting a 2.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He may have potential, but it will be several years before he is even approaching the major leagues.

While all of these prospects offer quality to the Nationals, they also offer risk, because they are prospects. As great as they might look in the minors until the player shows that they can do it in the major leagues, there is going to be some element of doubt. For that reason alone, it is hard to justify this trade package from Washington’s perspective.

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For the Nationals to surrender a premier talent like Soto without securing at least one more controllable young major leaguer makes it challenging to yield a sufficient return. With that being the case, it is also somewhat surprising that other teams in the hunt for Soto could not surpass the value of the San Diego deal.

It is possible that all of these prospects pan out and they become the core of the Washington Nationals moving forward, but the risk involved does make this a less-than-stellar return for a young superstar. Injuries and the chance that some players may not reach their potential opens the door to a potentially low floor in terms of value received. 

Trade Grade: C-

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