EP36's Lucky 7 Lounge

[EaglesPhan36]

So I keep harping on finding my specialty in whatever sport I am betting to maximize the profit and limit the loss. I've found it in baseball, football and basketball - I think. Tennis though has been a struggle at times, but this past week I discovered the glory of the Open Parlay. Why I took this long to utilize this beast is beyond me. So with roughly 6-8 weeks left in the ATP/Challenger seasons, I am going to track this project and see if it the thing that could put me into better position from week to week. My single match picks have been sketchy at-best, parlays I feel much better about for the most part. No more clutter outside of this thread for me for 2012. For anyone who wants to look at what I did with the first one of these this past week, check out this thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-betting/1892114-ep36s-weekly-wankoff-challengers-davis-cup-p3.html

Going to keep track of the Lucky 7 here and offer up other parlay includers from a week-2-week basis. Obviously the main goal is to get to the 7th slot in the parlay with a chance to hedge and earn a profit one way or another - however, this Open Parlay also offers the hedge opp whenever you see fit. Anywho, trying to find my niche. Watch me burn & welcome the Lucky 7 Lounge.

Parlay #1: +2.78 units

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay [+358]
Slot 1: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -425 W
Slot 2: Zopp [Petange] -425 W
Slot 3: Zopp [Petange] -600 W
Slot 4: Robredo [Seville] -855 W
Slot 5: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -500 W
Slot 6: Lorenzi [Todi] -275 W
Slot 7: Odesnik [Cali] -235 W
Hedged 0.8 units on Gonzalez @ +175 on Slot 7

[EaglesPhan36]

Here is the current project:

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #2
Slot 1: [Petange] Zopp -280 W
Slot 2: [Cali] Pella -365

[EaglesPhan36]

Pella took a huge dump in the 1st set against the qualifier. He did suck nuts in the opening set against Bagnis yesterday as well before rebounding. Need that or this one is done early.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like #2 is going to live up to it's name. Pathetic performance by Pella. Already broken in the 2nd and blowing break points right and left that could have gotten him back into it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good lord what the F Pella. 6-1, 6-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, well I was holding this to use for another slot in the last one, so I will go ahead and try to start a new Lucky 7 with this one and see how we do. Sheesh.

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #3
Slot 1: Pospisil [Davis Cup] -290

[EaglesPhan36]

Pospisil is closing in, so adding this one while it is still on the board.

Slot 2: Bellucci -900

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, we're through the first two slots. Will see what can be added for tonight/tomorrow to try to progress.

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #3
Slot 1: Pospisil [Davis Cup] -290 W
Slot 2: Bellucci [Davis Cup] -900 W

[EaglesPhan36]

Going for Slot 3 tonight.

Slot 3: Gojowczyk [Ningbo] -265

[EaglesPhan36]

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #3
Slot 1: Pospisil [Davis Cup] -290 W
Slot 2: Bellucci [Davis Cup] -900 W
Slot 3: Gojowczyk [Ningbo] -265 W


Gojo an easy winner tonight. Going to go ahead and fill Slot 4. Thought a lot about this one and I think Sela is going to help Israel close the door on Japan. Japan with a big blow with Nishikori unable to compete with a shoulder problem. Israel doubles squad fought through injury to win and get them in position. I think that + Ito's abysmal performance against Weintraub is enough reason to put Sela in Slot 4.

Slot 4: Sela [Davis Cup] -220

[BRUTUSB33FCAKE]

The Davis Cup website has Nishikori listed as replacing Ito tonight. I can't seem to find anything to confirm this. 5Dimes still has Ito listed.

[EaglesPhan36]

It is official. Nishikori is in. So Slot 4 goes as unfilled since that bet will get cancelled.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ...

Slot 4: Mathieu [Petange] -245

[sneakerhead]

EP, what do you think about Almagro+Ferrer in a parlay? Return is small but I will add a -110 NFL line tomorrow to increase payout.

Thanks!

[EaglesPhan36]

Obviously past helping, but Almagro would not have been an add because what has happened is what I expected. Don't think they are playing the 5th rubber at all and he probably would have been subbed out potentially if they did play it since it would have been meaningless. Well these last two have sucked. Mathieu failed. So back to the drawing board this week. Think I see a pattern that it might be easier to find more solid chalk early in the week obviously than later. Will take that into account as I move on.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay #1: +2.78 units
Parlay #2: -1.00 units
Parlay #3: -1.00 units

Good indoor hard tourneys this week.

Metz
#1. Tsonga
#2. Kohlschreiber
#3. Granollers
#4. F.Mayer

Mini-Preview: Don't be afraid to fade both Granollers & Mayer in their 1st matches. Both are probably playing a guy with a massive serve - Granollers potentially against Karlovic; Mayer either Blake or the big hitting Frenchman Oilvetti. I think one or both loses in their first match, especially considering they are surface switching from Davis Cup. Tsonga should moonwalk into the Final if he is healthy. At +150 to win it all, I'd take that for the defending champion. Bottom half features the return of the Mon-Feaseal! Monfils has been out since May. Not sure he's going to do a ton here, but nice to see the clown back. Bet at your own risk. Kohlschreiber as the #2 has a little bit of a tricky draw with some guys who can match serve for serve. Malisse, Mahut, Monfils all could keep him from going far. OVERs look like they could be trendy in that part of the bracket. Other upset possibilities in Round 1: Dodig over Seppi, Olivetti over Blake.

St.Petersburg
#1. Youzhny
#2. Istomin
#3. Klizan
#4. Fognini

Mini-Preview: This is a who's who of fade material. You've got a lot of guys coming straight from Davis Cup into this tournament. Edge to Youzhny who has been sitting on the side resting. Still, Pospisil up first for him is not an easy winner. Istomin looks boom or bust in this one to me. Coming in off a surface switch, he has Kubot first and a pretty decent draw to the semis if he plays well. Not sure that is something he is doing right now. Kamke should have an edge on Fognini in Round 1 after winning indoors @ Petange and Fognini coming in off Davis Cup play. Looking at a lot of the first round match-ups, could be doggie delight: Betov over Lorenzi, Donskoy over Garcia-Lopez, Berankis over Petzschner, Bautista-Agut over Lu .. any of those look possible. I predict a lot of headaches for people betting this tournament.

[beefcake]

Not headaches for dog players!!

Nice preview man.Looking at the 4 challengers myself right now.Hanescu and Haider mauer are still playing them.One of them has to crash and burn sooner or later.Talk about punching a time clock.Hanescu is even more of a pussy IMO for continuing to beat up on the 250 ranked guys.

I think personally(even though you dont bet em) is to watch out for the ladies upsets.Asia seems to bring out strange results...

I also would fade the crap out of stebe.Surface change and travel..Levine all the way..

[MUHerd37]

I wanna see what Klizan does.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think he wins two minimum. Depending on who he might get in the QFs if he gets there, he's a shot to go deep this week. Had the luxury of playing on indoor hard for Davis Cup and coming straight to the same surface.

[EaglesPhan36]

The Euro Challengers all have good fields with some familiar players. Will probably skip the Brazil one - a WTF entry in that one - Bogomolov as the top seed? WTF is this dude playing clay for? I might just play the wildcard against him in the opener for shits and grins. His entry is a head scratcher to me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Can see 5Dimes is dropping the ball on posting Challenger lines early again this week.

Interested to see how Stevie Johnson fairs in Turkey. Good test vs. Kravchuk.

[Zenyatta 19-1]

babos?????

[EaglesPhan36]

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #4
Slot 1: Martin [Trnava] -320

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ....

Slot 2: Brands (Metz) -320

[shari91]

GL EP! I might put some cash back in 5Dimes just so I can play these too.

I liked Olivetti today until I saw how much his price had dropped. That never makes me feel good but I still might take the chance. And then come bitch in here tomorrow for being an idiot again of course.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I really like this option. Of course running into donks like Brands who fukk things up early sucks, but it is a cool little option for laying chalk. Can't seem to get going in these now. Fawk Brands. Another sample for our line movers that line movement means shit all. Brands got pounded to an absurd price. Guess I will get started on #5 tomorrow.

I need to really settle back in on taking the lowest risks and staying away from questionable characters. Supposed to be the point of laying chalk.

Olivetti seems to have drifted back out a bit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Stevie J rippin' Kravchuk up. Good to see. If he is winning main draw US Open matches, he needs to run deep @ these Challengers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay #1: +2.78 units
Parlay #2: -1.00 units
Parlay #3: -1.00 units
Parlay #4: -1.00 units

Alright. Time to Get Smart & erase the small deficit in this project. #5 starting Tuesday, getting the 1st couple slots together.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #5
Slot 1: J.Sousa [Trnava] -350
Slot 2: Bartoli [Guangzhou] -715

[EaglesPhan36]

Just throwing these out there because I have looked over a lot of the Challenger stuff. If you're a dog player, take a gander at these:

Sikora [Trvana] +220
Westerof [Trvana] +135

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated with two picks now to start. May the tennis gawds have mercy on my soul.

[EaglesPhan36]

Crisis averted. Bartroli quits. Never again with WTA. Slot 2 back to open.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay #5
Slot 1: J.Sousa [Trnava] -350 W
Slot 2: Bartoli [Guangzhou] -715 CANCELLED

It looks like the Bartoli slot stays filled, but cancelled due to the retirement. So that means we've got five slots to fill. Adding this one next.

Slot 3: Ilhan [Izmir] -750

[beefcake]

I saw Bogo at +10000(no shit!!) at bet 365...If I lived in Canada it would be worth 1.00!!!

[tevari]

Interesting & entertaining thread. BOL.