Choke on top of a choke for Lajovic. Nice one putz.
Muller probably wins on serve alone.
Muller probably wins on serve alone.
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I see Haider-Mauer is playing some hot shot wildcard from Bosnia and H tomorrow.I mean he has played a lot of matches but is hot.Curious to see the odds.Might play it for .25 unit..Comment -
Uber choke Berankis. Serving for the setr @ 5-3 in the 2nd. Broken and barely won a couple games rest of the way. Didn't feel good about him either. Another one that looked good but nagged in the head. Oh well. Lucky 7 is alive and looks to be the chance to get out of the gutter maybe.Comment -
Weekly Record: 3-9 [-2.70]
Superb record, I know. Today was a major buzzkill - but the small units wagered keep the losses manageable. Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay update ...
Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay
Slot 1: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -425 W
Slot 2: Zopp [Petange] -425 W
Slot 3: Zopp [Petange] -600 W
Slot 4: Robredo [Seville] -855 W
Slot 5: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -500 W
One slot left to get some guaranteed cash as my strategy for the 7th Slot will include a hedge. Not that I expect to always be in position to cash these out during a week - but I really like this strategy of using the open parlay on some higher priced favorites that I would normally not play at all. This is something I think I should have utilized a long time ago.Comment -
9.12.12 (Starts @ 10pm ET)
[Ningbo] Wu -150Comment -
Wu getting beat down. Maybe a masterful Chinese reverse fix ... wake up mutha fukka.Comment -
Wu comes back from losing the opener 2-6 to win in three sets. Maybe that's the start of some good shit to roll over into Thursday!
9.13.12
[Todi] Naso -155 *1 unit
[Banja Luka] Mektic -120 *0.5 unit
[Petange] Bossel +467 +0.25 unit
Filling Slot 6
Slot 6: Lorenzi [Todi] -275Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay
Slot 1: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -425 W
Slot 2: Zopp [Petange] -425 W
Slot 3: Zopp [Petange] -600 W
Slot 4: Robredo [Seville] -855 W
Slot 5: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -500 W
Comment -
What do you think of Malek Jaziri vs Radu Albot?Comment -
Wasn't around for that one. He won easily. Bosnian tourney looks to be rained out today, so the Mektic bet will be on hold. Todi tourney looks like it will get some play in at some point.Comment -
Have dodig in final of parlay.Pashanski remains hot!! Should be a nice dog price vs Traver if he plays him..Comment -
Dodig is sucking asshole to this point. Too bad he didn't play like that against Ouanna last round.Comment -
Do you know why the Victor Hanescu line jumped from -1000 to -1500 and now to -500?
That's some heavy changeComment -
The spitter ha played a lot of matches last few weeks.Would not be surprised to see him pull a Dodig today.Comment -
EP, robredo is playing a crapload of sets as of late.Tiring today,even if he wins could be good to oppose him finally for a solid unit.
Dodig woke up with a break.Now smoke this bitch..Comment -
The line moves as some have explained before are due to the low limits on Challengers. When people make MAX bets on someone, the lines go haywire. You see a lot of that on the "names" playing this week.Comment -
Dodig!!!
All right I rode this kid Bossel for a smidge..Lets get it man!!
Heavy action on Desein at bet 365.. Weird, but like you said some brit most likely bet 500 quid on him and that moved it.Muller surely wont lose at his own tourney?
Looking at cali, I see that Alves handled Paycheck with ease.Considering his form his opponent today might be worth a look at +175(estevez)
Sure enough we have our first Wildcard in Barrintios making the QF in cali.Falla retired and then he beat Salamanca..Comment -
Yeah I have noticed once the MAX bets pound these guys out to triple their opening price like Hanescu and Haider-Maurer, you always get it bought back some. Think they got to -1500 and were back under -1000 at some point. Waiting to see if Lorenzi can finish off Slot 6 in the parlay so I can plot my strategy to cash that Lucky 7 parlay. Have a couple of ideas. so anxious to look at them more if he makes it through.Comment -
Lorenzi comes through, so the Lucky 7 moves on to the final slot!
Naso choking like a mother fukker. Will be back to plot the final slot in that parlay in a bit.Comment -
Deciding set for Bossel!Comment -
Early choke on-serve. Seems par for the course with my last few plays.Comment -
Okay. So here we are with the Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay
Six legs complete. I see many options you have on Slot 7. You obviously have many, many options depending on your comfort level. Here are a couple if you have been following along this week just as examples. Of course you can also go Balls Out and just play the last slot without a hedge, but if you're trying to make money - you should hedge.Lucky 7 OPEN Parlay
Slot 1: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -425 W
Slot 2: Zopp [Petange] -425 W
Slot 3: Zopp [Petange] -600 W
Slot 4: Robredo [Seville] -855 W
Slot 5: Gimeno-Traver [Seville] -500 W
Slot 6: Lorenzi [Todi] -275 W
#1 CONSERVATIVE HEDGE [Payout +240]
Slot 7: Giraldo -2300
With this selection, you can take Giraldo's opponent [De Paula +1100] for 0.3 units as a hedge and score 3.33 units if he wins. Subtract the original one unit investment on the Lucky 7 and you finish with 2.33 units of profit. If you choose this and Giraldo wins, you end up with 2.07 units of profit + your original one unit back in your pocket.
#2 AGGRESSIVE HEDGE [Payout +435]
Slot 7: Pella -155
This allows you to take a more evenly priced match to go for a bigger payout. The example I will use is the Pella-Bagnis line in Cali. If you fill the final slot with Pella, the payout should he win would be 4.35 units. You have Bagnis as your hedge @ +115. Here is where you make your choice. You could hedge heavy on Bagnis for say two units as you would be cutting your payout almost in half if Pella wins. You would only end up with 1.30 units of profit if Bagnis won [2.30 units on the +115 price minus your one unit original investment] and 2.35 if Pella won.
Compared to the Conservative strategy above, you would get slightly more if the favorite won - but considerably less on an upset win on the hedge. Your other choice is to fill that final slot with Pella & go for the biggest score by hedging something like 1-1.5 units on Bagnis. If Bagnis won, your profit would be small - but if Pella wins, you'd get your biggest payout of over 3 units.
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And of course you could go anywhere in between. Take Odesnik @ -245 or someone else, whatever floats your boat. For me, this is how I am finishing:
Slot 7: Odesnik -245
My payout is Odesnik wins would be +358.
Gonzalez is available @ +175. I am placing 0.8 units on Gonzalez at this price. So if Odesnik wins, I finish with +278 for 2.78 units of profit on this project and if Gonzalez wins, he would pay +1.40 units. Subtract the original investment and you come out with 0.4 units of profit.
I don't mind the risk here because I believe Odesnik is the better surface player and has a good chance at winning. If an upset occurs, so be it.
Comment -
Like it, Wayne is solid on clay vs the lower level stiffs.Comment -
EP, did you see that this kid Desein is on an 11 match win streak and 14 out of 16?? Won the last 2 futures(albeit on clay), but the surface change did not seem to affect him in the first round where he smoked Stauffer. He should not beat Muller but at +400 looks tasty!!Comment -
Kid pulls it off!!!Comment -
Muller is such a sloth. Odesnik broken to start the 3rd. Sounds familiar.Comment -
Break back. WTA in the house. Well Challenger in the house, same difference.Comment -
By the way, I will be rolling out some Davis Cup info later for anyone who cares. Lots of matches.Comment -
Odesnik
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Nice hit!!Comment -
Weekly Record: 5-11 [-1.32]
So the Lucky 7 keeps me afloat in an otherwise shitty week. I think I am going to open another Lucky 7 to start with the Davis Cup matches as some of those will offer heavy, heavy chalk. Mektic play pending for tomorrow.Comment -
Remember, Davis Cup is a Best of Five format. You can find all the match-ups and surface info here:
All plays are for half a unit, either to risk or to win unless noted otherwise.
Davis Cup Plays
[Japan v. Israel] Sela +140 .. Hard Court
[Kazakhstan v. Uzbekistan] Korolev +135 .. Indoor Clay
[Germany v. Australia] Stebe +140 .. Outdoor Clay
[Brazil v. Russia] Dutra Da Silva -120 .. Outdoor Clay
Australia to Advance -120
Czech Republic to Advance +175 +0.25 units
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Just curious, any reason for Korolev over Istomin?Comment -
Korolev has been playing clay for weeks and doing reasonably well @ Challengers. Istomin hasn't looked real great since the Olympics and clay isn't a great surface for him. If Korolev serves well, he will have a solid shot to score the win.Comment -
Like all the plays.Pashanski is +130 vs Traver...Riding him..Comment
